Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, down 7.5 points, on $249K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Wilson Alaska contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead's subject.…
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Bernadette Wilson’s contract to win the 2026 Alaska governor election was priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, down 7.5 probability points over 24 hours, with $249K traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the downward moves in its political/election category.
The figures accompanied an update published Oct 22, 2026, at 7:24 PM ET. The supplied PredictionBubbles board recorded its venue-price snapshot at 23:07 UTC on 22 Oct 2026.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles compares prices from Polymarket and Kalshi over a 24-hour window and refreshes its board every 15 minutes. Its rankings use the size of the change in probability points, rather than the relative percentage change, so Wilson’s decline is a 7.5-point move—not a 7.5% fall.
The board’s stated universe covers 1,989 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify for its rankings; resolved markets and contracts too new to provide that baseline are excluded.
What the snapshot does not establish
The supplied material does not identify a campaign development, poll or other event behind Wilson’s decline. It establishes a change in the market’s pricing, but does not explain why traders lowered the implied probability.
The $249K traded figure supplies activity context, but the provided headline does not specify its measurement period or disclose order-book depth. According to PredictionBubbles, trading volume and liquidity provide context for moves without affecting their position in the probability-change rankings.
What it means for prediction markets
A lower market estimate: The 11.5% price reflects a downward repricing of Wilson’s election prospects, not an independently verified forecast.
Magnitude is distinct from cause: The 7.5-point decline identifies a notable change over 24 hours; the supplied reporting does not establish its catalyst.
Volume is not depth: The reported $249K traded does not, by itself, establish how much liquidity was available when prices moved.
Timing matters: These figures describe the supplied snapshot, while the underlying movers board updates every 15 minutes.