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Philadelphia Union’s market-implied chance of winning the 2026 MLS Cup stood at 4.0% on Polymarket, down 2.8 probability points, in the supplied market update published Oct 22, 2026 · 8:24 PM ET. The update reported $250K traded.
The figures show a lower valuation of Philadelphia’s title prospects among market participants. The supplied material does not identify a match result, team announcement or other development behind the decline.
How the move is measured
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours and ranks changes by their absolute size in probability points—not by relative percentage changes. On that basis, Philadelphia’s decline is a 2.8-point move, not a 2.8% decrease.
The outlet says it refreshes the tracker every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page lists its venue-data snapshot as 23 Oct 2026, 00:09 UTC. Its rankings cover 1,992 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days, excluding markets without a valid day-old comparison.
What the figures leave open
The $250K traded figure adds activity context, but the supplied Philadelphia update does not provide order-book depth or a transaction breakdown. According to predictionbubbles.net, trading volume and liquidity inform how a move should be interpreted but do not determine its position in the movers ranking.
The supplied source-page excerpt explains the tracker’s methodology rather than displaying a Philadelphia-specific entry. The 4.0% price, 2.8-point decline and $250K figure therefore come from the accompanying headline and summary; the material offers no separate explanation for the repricing.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction is clear; cause is not. The reported move marks a reduction in Philadelphia Union’s market-implied title probability, without establishing what prompted it.
Price is not an outcome. The 4.0% reading reflects the market’s valuation at the reported time, not a determination of who will win the 2026 MLS Cup.
Volume is only part of the context. The reported $250K traded does not, by itself, establish liquidity or explain the size of the price change.