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Kalshi gasoline threshold odds rise sharply as new contracts trade

PredictionBubbles' new-markets list, on the same Nov. 1 read, shows Kalshi's average gas price contracts, opened about 13 hours ago, repricing sharply: above $4.00 now…

According to PredictionBubbles, Kalshi’s market on average gas prices exceeding $4.00 was priced at 71.0% in its Nov. 1 snapshot, compared with 49% in the earlier reading.

A sharp move in a newly opened market

The contract had led PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 31 1124 edition of its new-markets list. The latest update was published Nov 1, 2026 · 12:24 AM ET.

PredictionBubbles’ Nov. 1 reading put traded volume at $17K. It also indicated that Kalshi’s average gas price contracts had opened about 13 hours earlier, placing the repricing within the market’s initial trading period.

The supplied summary does not specify the contract’s measurement window, the benchmark used to determine average gas prices or its settlement rules. It also offers no explanation for the move from 49% to 71.0%.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The higher price signals a stronger market-implied likelihood of the above-$4.00 outcome, not confirmation that gas prices have crossed that threshold.
  • The $17K traded provides context for the move, but the supplied material does not establish market depth or how broadly trading activity was distributed.
  • The missing measurement window and settlement criteria limit comparisons with other gasoline-price forecasts or contracts.
PredictionMarketsKalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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