Arizona St. wins priced at 1% on Kalshi, down 14 points, on $928K traded

The Arizona St. win contract on Kalshi was priced at 1%, down 14 probability points, with $928K traded, according to the supplied headline. The accompanying summary places it among the largest downward moves on PredictionBubbles’ sports markets board, read Oct. 17 at 21:42 UTC.

A sharp move, with limited event context

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window using probability points rather than relative percentages. The reported 14-point decline therefore describes a change in the contract’s implied probability—not a 14% relative fall.

The supplied page text does not include the Arizona St. contract’s individual listing. It also does not identify the opponent, event date, settlement conditions or a reason for the decline. The figures establish a reported repricing, but the available material does not explain what drove it.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data reading at 22:12 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, later than the summary’s 21:42 UTC reading; it does not independently confirm the Arizona St. figures at that later time.

The page describes a ranking universe of 2,004 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify. Its table displays the top 150 of 415 markets moving at least one probability point, with trading volume providing context rather than determining rank.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price is not settlement: The reported 1% price reflects a low market-implied probability, not a confirmed outcome.
• Movement and activity are separate: The 14-point decline measures repricing; the $928K traded measures activity. The supplied material does not establish the volume period or order-book depth for this contract.
• The snapshot matters: Without the individual listing or event details, readers cannot determine the catalyst, verify settlement terms or confirm whether the reported price persisted.