Arizona House market loses clear favorite as Nez pricing retreats
Polyguana reports the Arizona 2nd district market has tightened to near even, with Democrat Jonathan Nez at 52.5 percent on one board and Republican Eli Crane at 58 percent on another, after an earlier read priced Nez at 70 percent against Crane at 30.5 percent. About 7,100 dollars traded in the market in the last 24 hours.
Arizona’s 2nd district House market moved toward a near-even contest after earlier pricing favored Democrat Jonathan Nez, according to Polyguana’s Nov 3, 2026 update published at 11:15 PM ET.
The earlier reading put Nez at 70 percent and Republican Eli Crane at 30.5 percent. The subsequent figures showed a substantially less decisive picture, though the reported boards did not agree on the favorite.
Different boards favor different candidates
Polyguana reported Nez at 52.5 percent on one board, while another placed Crane at 58 percent. Those figures are separate board readings, not a single paired snapshot of the candidates’ chances.
About 7,100 dollars traded in the market over the last 24 hours, according to Polyguana. The supplied summary does not identify what drove the repricing or provide vote-count information to explain it.
What it means for prediction markets
- Nez’s earlier 70 percent pricing no longer describes the latest reported picture: the market had tightened considerably.
- Board selection matters. The reported readings favor different candidates and should not be combined into one probability estimate.
- The roughly 7,100 dollars in 24-hour trading volume provides activity context, but the summary offers no order-book detail to assess market depth.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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