Nez favored to unseat Crane as Arizona market shifts sharply
Polyguana reports Democrat Jonathan Nez leads Republican Eli Crane 70 percent to 30.5 percent in Arizona's 2nd district, a Republican-held seat the board now prices as a Democratic flip. The market moved 24.5 points in 24 hours, with about 2,600 dollars traded in the last day.
Democrat Jonathan Nez is priced at 70 percent against Republican Eli Crane at 30.5 percent in the market for Arizona's 2nd district, according to Polyguana. Those prices favor a Democratic takeover of the Republican-held House seat.
A sharp move on limited trading
Polyguana’s update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 10:15 PM ET, reported a 24.5-point market move over 24 hours. The supplied summary does not specify the direction of that change or which candidate’s price it measures.
About 2,600 dollars traded during the last day, according to Polyguana. That trading figure provides context for the price movement, but the summary offers no information about the number of traders or the market’s available liquidity.
The reported percentages describe market pricing, not vote shares or an election result. Nez’s lead therefore represents the market’s assessment of a possible flip, rather than confirmation that control of the seat has changed.
What it means for prediction markets
- A flip is favored, not settled: Nez’s 70 percent price puts the Democratic challenger ahead, while Crane remains priced at 30.5 percent.
- The movement needs context: The reported 24.5-point change is substantial, but the summary does not identify its direction or a catalyst.
- The prices are not complementary: The two reported figures total 100.5 percent. The supplied material does not explain that discrepancy.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Polyguana
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Polyguana”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.