Apple probability surges to 65.3 percent as Nvidia odds plunge
The market on which company will be the world's largest by market cap on October 31 swung sharply in the last 24 hours, with Apple rising 49.5 points to 65.3 percent on 349,000 dollars traded while NVIDIA dropped 44.2 points to 39.9 percent. PredictionBubbles ranks it among the biggest absolute probability moves across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Apple’s probability in a Polymarket contract on which company will be the world’s largest by market capitalization on October 31 rose 49.5 percentage points to 65.3 percent over the last 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles.
NVIDIA moved sharply in the opposite direction, falling 44.2 percentage points to 39.9 percent. The figures were reported in an update published Oct 31, 2026, at 5:30 AM ET.
A sharp shift near the deadline
PredictionBubbles reported $349,000 traded alongside Apple’s move. It ranked the swing among the biggest absolute probability changes across Kalshi and Polymarket.
The reported figures put Apple ahead of NVIDIA in the contract. They describe prediction-market pricing, however, rather than establish which company held the highest market capitalization.
What the report leaves open
The summary does not identify a catalyst for the repricing or provide the companies’ actual market capitalizations. It also does not include the contract’s detailed resolution rules or precise settlement time.
Apple’s and NVIDIA’s reported probabilities together exceed 100 percent. Without further pricing or timing detail, the summary does not explain that discrepancy.
What it means for prediction markets
- Large repricing: Apple’s 49.5-point gain and NVIDIA’s 44.2-point decline mark a substantial shift in the reported probabilities over 24 hours.
- Deadline matters: The update arrived on the October 31 date specified by the market, making the unavailable settlement details important for interpreting the prices.
- Prices are not results: The reported probabilities do not confirm the market-cap ranking or the contract’s eventual outcome.
Sources & attribution
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