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Polymarket priced the chance of Anthropic’s market capitalization finishing between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day at 9.2%, in the update published Oct 24, 2026 · 7:39 PM ET.
The supplied market summary recorded a 6.2-percentage-point decline on $188K traded. The probability was also down 5.1 points since the Oct. 23 carry, a separate comparison from the daily move.
What the figures establish
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker measures changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages. It draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied page identifies its venue-reading time as 25 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC.
The supplied source excerpt describes the tracker’s methodology but does not display the Anthropic contract’s individual entry or identify a catalyst for its decline. The available figures therefore establish a repricing of this particular valuation band, not why traders changed their positions.
What it means for prediction markets
The outcome is narrowly defined: The 9.2% price concerns a $1.25T–$1.5T market capitalization at the IPO-day close, not Anthropic’s valuation generally.
Direction remains unresolved: A lower probability for this band alone does not establish whether traders favor a valuation above $1.5T or below $1.25T.
Volume is context, not proof of depth: The $188K traded accompanies the move, but the supplied material provides no order-book information to assess liquidity.