Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 priced at 33.5% on Polymarket, down 8.0 points, on $474K traded

Anthropic’s Polymarket contract for having the best AI model at the end of December 2026 was priced at 33.5%, down 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $474K traded, according to PredictionBubbles.

The snapshot puts the contract’s implied probability at roughly one in three. The supplied material does not identify a specific development behind the decline or provide the criteria used to determine which model qualifies as best.

A snapshot of the technology board

PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 30, 02:55 UTC crawl covered 55 open technology markets with $68.0M traded. Its tracked markets span AI milestones, product launches, valuations and company events.

According to PredictionBubbles, that coverage comprises 15 markets from Kalshi and 40 from Polymarket. The site refreshes its published data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.

Price movement and volume measure different things

PredictionBubbles ranks movers by the absolute size of their probability changes over the previous 24 hours and separately ranks markets by total traded volume. Anthropic’s 8.0-point decline therefore measures a change in expectations, while the $474K figure records trading volume—not the amount traded during that decline.

The board’s largest market by total volume at the last refresh was Kalshi’s question about whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027, with $29.7M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The aggregator displays venue prices rather than accepting wagers, holding funds or offering accounts.

What it means for prediction markets

• Expectations weakened: The 33.5% price reflects a lower market-implied probability for Anthropic than 24 hours earlier, not a definitive assessment of its models.
• Resolution terms matter: The supplied material does not establish how “best” will be judged. That limits what readers can infer about the technical outcome being priced.
• The figures are a snapshot: PredictionBubbles’ 15-minute refresh cycle means displayed prices can lag ongoing venue trading.
• Cross-venue comparisons need care: PredictionBubbles notes that related Kalshi and Polymarket questions can have different wording and resolution rules.