Kreiss-Tomkins reaches 94.5 percent in market for Alaska governor
Polyguana reports Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has run to 94.5 percent in the Alaska governor market for the open Republican-held seat and is now priced as a safe Democratic flip. Alaska is one of 36 governorships on the ballot tonight.
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins reached 94.5 percent in the Alaska governor prediction market, according to Polyguana. The pricing puts him firmly ahead in the contest for an open Republican-held seat.
Market points toward a party change
Polyguana’s update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 10:15 PM ET, characterized the market as pricing Alaska as a safe Democratic pickup. That describes market expectations, rather than a confirmed election outcome.
The open seat makes control of the governorship the central question: a Kreiss-Tomkins victory would move it from Republican to Democratic hands.
Alaska in the wider election
Alaska is one of 36 governorships on the ballot tonight, according to Polyguana. The supplied update provides no vote totals or other evidence with which to compare the market’s assessment.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 94.5 percent pricing signals strong market confidence in Kreiss-Tomkins, but does not establish that he has won.
- A Democratic victory would represent a party-control change in an open Republican-held governorship.
- The reported figure is a snapshot from the Nov 3, 2026 update at 10:15 PM ET, not a final result.
Sources & attribution
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- Polyguana
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