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Alabama win the College Football Playoff National Championship priced at 5% on Kalshi, down 4 points, on $3.3M traded

PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Alabama title contract among the day's downward moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead — a contract with…

Alabama’s contract to win the College Football Playoff National Championship was priced at 5% on Kalshi, down 4 percentage points over 24 hours, with $3.3M traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board.

The Alabama title contract appeared among the day’s declining sports markets. The supplied material does not identify a game result, team announcement or other catalyst for the repricing.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Alabama’s decline therefore represents a 4-point reduction in its market-implied title probability—not a 4% relative fall.

The board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 18 Oct 2026, 06:48 UTC, ahead of the story’s publication at Oct 18, 2026 · 2:54 AM ET.

What the board captures

According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 2,039 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; resolved markets and those too new to have that baseline are omitted.

The board’s table displays the top 150 of 428 markets that moved at least one probability point. Trading volume provides context but does not affect the movement ranking. The supplied Alabama headline reports $3.3M traded without specifying the period covered by that figure.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The direction is clear, but the cause is not: Alabama’s title probability fell to 5%, while the supplied reporting offers no explanation for the move.
  • Volume and price movement measure different things: The $3.3M figure adds trading context, but does not establish market depth or explain the decline.
  • This is a snapshot, not an outcome: The price records traders’ assessment at the stated update; it does not determine whether Alabama will win the championship.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/

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