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Kalshi pricing implies 98% chance for El-Sayed in Michigan Senate contest

PredictionMarketPicks' hourly board, updated November 4 at 12:07 a.m. ET, prices Abdul El-Sayed at 98 cents on Kalshi to win Michigan's Senate race, with Mike Rogers at 2 cents. Each contract pays 1 dollar at resolution, so the price equals the market's implied probability.

Abdul El-Sayed’s contract to win Michigan’s Senate race stood at 98 cents on Kalshi, compared with 2 cents for Mike Rogers, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

The figures came from PredictionMarketPicks’ hourly board, updated November 4 at 12:07 a.m. ET. The item carrying those prices was published Nov 4, 2026 · 5:45 AM ET.

What the prices show

Each contract pays 1 dollar at resolution, making its price equivalent to the market’s implied probability. On that basis, the board assigned El-Sayed a 98% chance of winning and Rogers a 2% chance.

Those prices show a heavily one-sided market assessment at the recorded update, not a confirmed election outcome. The supplied summary contains no earlier prices with which to establish how the market moved.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Clear favorite: El-Sayed’s 98-cent price reflects a substantially higher implied probability than Rogers’ 2-cent price.
  • Snapshot timing matters: The quoted prices belong to the November 4, 12:07 a.m. ET board update, rather than the later publication time.
  • Limited context: The summary provides no trading volume, liquidity or resolution details beyond the 1 dollar contract payout.
KalshiSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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