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87 Percent to Win, Three Spreads to Choose: Sunday's Margin Trade

The winner is not really in dispute anywhere. For the 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday, November 1, Kalshi has Cincinnati at 87%, Polymarket at 86%, DraftKings at -675 and the Dimers model at 87%, with a projected score of Bengals 30, Titans 17. A 1-6 Tennessee team visiting a 4-2 Cincinnati side chasing a third straight win is priced as close to settled.

What the markets cannot agree on is the margin. Kalshi traders have made 10.5 points the centre of the spread ladder, DraftKings sits at 12.5, and Polymarket's default line is 13.5. That is a three-point spread between the spreads, and for this game that gap is the whole trade.

Kalshi's ladder shows where the money is fighting. The 10.5-point contract has traded more than 650,000 contracts, far more than any other rung, at 55%. The ladder grades the blowout step by step: 7.5 points at 62%, 13.5 at 47%, 17.5 at 34% and 23.5 at 20%. On the 14-point win itself the rivals agree almost exactly: Polymarket prices 13.5 at 48% Yes and Kalshi at 47%. They disagree on which line to put in front of you, not on the probability.

The rest of the board fills in the shape. The total over 46.5 points sits at 50% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, Kalshi prices the Bengals over 29.5 points at 53%, and Polymarket prices the Titans over 16.5 at 52%. To score a touchdown, Chase Brown leads at 57% on Kalshi, Ja'Marr Chase follows at 52%, and Tony Pollard is the first Titan at 40%.

So Sunday offers two different trades in one game: a winner priced at 87 cents, and a margin nobody can pin to within three points. The model puts the median result right on 13.5, which is why that line is the one priced as a coin flip.

NFLsportsKalshiPolymarketprediction marketsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Rocky Top Insider
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  2. Source 2
    Dimers
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