11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 priced at 0.1% on Polymarket, on $5.3M traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
A Polymarket contract on whether 11 Fed rate cuts will happen in 2026 was priced at a market-implied probability of 0.1%, with $5.3M traded, in the supplied snapshot dated Oct 28, 2026, at 5:24 PM ET. The price places that outcome at the far edge of traders’ expectations, rather than ruling it out entirely.
A snapshot, not a fresh catalyst
The accompanying news search identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. The material therefore provides no fresh catalyst to explain the price, nor a prior reading from which to measure a change.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance dashboard aggregates prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. The venues themselves trade continuously, so a dashboard reading is a periodically updated snapshot rather than a tick-by-tick price.
Volume and probability tell different stories
PredictionBubbles listed 193 open finance markets in the supplied material: 170 from Polymarket and 23 from Kalshi. Its volume ranking measures total trading activity, while a separate ranking tracks absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours.
According to predictionbubbles.net, the most-traded finance contract at its latest refresh asked whether no Fed rate cuts would happen in 2026, with $9.2M traded on Polymarket. The supplied material does not give that contract’s probability, limiting any comparison with the 11-cut outcome to reported trading volume.
What it means for prediction markets
- A low price is not a settled result. The 0.1% reading represents the market’s current estimate for 11 cuts in 2026, not a confirmed outcome.
- Turnover is distinct from conviction. The $5.3M traded measures activity; it does not establish how much money currently supports either side.
- Timing and contract terms matter. PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes and notes that related questions across venues can have different wording and resolution rules.
- The evidence does not establish a trend. Without a previous price or a new identified catalyst, this snapshot cannot show whether expectations for 11 cuts have recently risen or fallen.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/finance/
Date & time:
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