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Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 31, 2026 · 10:15 AM ET

1 story in this edition: James Talarico leads Texas Senate betting markets as early voter turnout surges

James Talarico leads Texas Senate betting markets as early voter turnout surges

Both exchanges price Democrat James Talarico at 70 cents against Republican Ken Paxton at 31 cents on Polymarket and 30 cents on Kalshi, with about 57.1 million dollars of volume on the Kalshi market and Texas early voting already past the full 2022 early-vote total.

Talarico leads on both exchanges

Democrat James Talarico’s Texas Senate contract was priced at 70 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi, according to Action Network. The report, published Oct 31, 2026, at 10:15 AM ET, put him ahead of Republican Ken Paxton on both exchanges.

Paxton’s contract traded at 31 cents on Polymarket and 30 cents on Kalshi. The platforms therefore showed the same price for Talarico, with a one-cent difference for his Republican opponent.

Turnout and trading volume

The Kalshi market had recorded about 57.1 million dollars in volume, according to Action Network. The supplied summary did not include a corresponding volume figure for Polymarket.

Texas early voting had already exceeded the entire 2022 early-vote total, Action Network reported. That turnout milestone accompanied the market lead for Talarico, but the supplied information did not establish which candidate benefited from the higher participation.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Consistent leader: Both exchanges priced Talarico at 70 cents, showing agreement on the leading candidate at the reported snapshot—not certainty about the result.
  • Small pricing difference: Paxton stood at 31 cents on Polymarket versus 30 cents on Kalshi.
  • Turnout needs context: Early voting above the full 2022 early-vote total is a participation signal; the supplied figures do not show its partisan breakdown.
  • Volume comparison is limited: About 57.1 million dollars in Kalshi volume was reported, but no Polymarket volume was provided.

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Action Networkactionnetwork.com
    Publisher
    https://www.actionnetwork.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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