Democratic odds for North Carolina congressional seat jump to 44 percent on Polymarket
Polymarket traders raised the chance that the Democratic Party wins North Carolina's 13th House district to 44 percent, up 11 points in 24 hours, against 56 percent for the Republican side. The market has 304,000 dollars in lifetime volume, with 146,000 dollars traded in the last day, and resolves on November 4, 2026 after the November 3 election.
Polymarket’s probability of a Democratic Party victory in North Carolina’s 13th House district rose 11 percentage points in 24 hours to 44 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The Republican side stood at 56 percent.
Republican side retains the lead
The figures, reported on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, show a shift toward Democrats without a reversal in which party traders favor. The Republican side remained ahead by 12 percentage points.
The supplied report does not identify a reason for the Democratic gain. It records a change in market pricing, rather than evidence explaining what prompted traders to reassess the race.
Trading volume and resolution
According to PredictionBubbles, the market recorded 304,000 dollars in lifetime trading volume, including 146,000 dollars over the last day. That puts nearly half of all recorded trading in the same 24-hour period as the probability increase.
The election is scheduled for November 3, with the market set to resolve on November 4, 2026. Those are distinct dates: one is the voting event, while the other is the stated market-resolution date.
What it means for prediction markets
- A narrower gap, not a new favorite: Democrats reached 44 percent after an 11-point rise, but Republicans still led at 56 percent.
- Recent trading was substantial: The last day’s 146,000 dollars accounted for nearly half of the market’s 304,000 dollars in lifetime volume.
- The catalyst is unspecified: The provided reporting does not establish why prices moved or whether the shift will persist through the November 3 election.
Sources & attribution
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- PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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