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Hourly Briefing ·

Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 31, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET

1 story in this edition: Kalshi's 'Blue Tsunami' scenario probability reaches a record high above 60 percent

Kalshi's 'Blue Tsunami' scenario probability reaches a record high above 60 percent

Kalshi News described midterm scenario markets defining a Blue Tsunami as Democrats reaching 235 or more House seats and 51 Senate seats. The Blue Wave scenario, defined as at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats, sits at 83.9 percent.

Democratic scenarios gain ground

Kalshi’s Blue Tsunami scenario exceeded 60 percent for the first time, according to Kalshi News. The report, published Oct 31, 2026 · 9:45 AM ET, also put Democrats at 92 percent for House control.

The Blue Tsunami contract uses a specific seat threshold: Democrats must reach 235 or more House seats and 51 Senate seats, according to Kalshi News. That makes it a different proposition from winning the House alone.

The less demanding Blue Wave scenario stood at 83.9 percent. Kalshi News defines that outcome as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats.

Together, the figures distinguish expectations for Democratic House control from expectations for broader results across both chambers. House control carried the highest reported probability, followed by Blue Wave and then Blue Tsunami.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Definitions matter: House control, Blue Wave and Blue Tsunami represent different outcomes. The two named scenarios include Senate-seat requirements as well as House thresholds.
  • The milestone is specific: Blue Tsunami crossed 60 percent for the first time, but the supplied report does not give an exact probability above that level.
  • These are not interchangeable signals: The 92 percent House-control figure does not, by itself, describe the likelihood of either combined House-and-Senate scenario.

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshi Newsnews.kalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://news.kalshi.com
    Source URL
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