Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 31, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET

Senate control priced at 71 cents

Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate stood at 71 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket in the Dave Manuel tracker’s October 31 update at 5:00 AM PT. The price was up 2 cents over the preceding 24 hours, according to the tracker.

The update puts Alaska at the center of the Senate-control picture. The tracker ranks it as the tipping-point contest—the race that would deliver Republicans their 50th seat—with Mary Peltola favored at about 71 percent.

Alaska’s pivotal position

Alaska’s ranking and Peltola’s price describe different things: the ranking identifies the contest’s place in the path to Senate control, while the roughly 71 percent figure reflects her standing in that race. Together, they make Alaska a key contest for readers tracking the chamber-wide market.

The tracker also lists House-control prices at 94 cents on Kalshi and 95 cents on Polymarket. Unlike the Senate figures, which match across the two platforms, those House prices show a 1-cent difference. The supplied summary does not specify which party those House prices represent.

What it means for prediction markets

• The Senate markets agree: Both platforms price Democratic control at 71 cents, following a 2-cent increase in 24 hours.
• Alaska is the tipping-point race: Its position as Republicans’ potential 50th seat makes Peltola’s roughly 71 percent standing particularly relevant to the Senate-control outlook.
• Race and chamber prices are distinct: Peltola’s probability and the Democratic Senate-control price are numerically similar, but concern separate outcomes.
• House comparisons have a limitation: The tracker shows 94 cents on Kalshi and 95 cents on Polymarket, but the supplied material does not identify the party attached to those prices.