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Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 31, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET

1 story in this edition: Price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket peaks over 2028 Republican control

Price gap between Kalshi and Polymarket peaks over 2028 Republican control

Across 54 matched outcomes priced on both exchanges on October 31, the average gap was 0.8 percentage points. The two venues agreed exactly on 2026 House and Senate control, pricing Democrats at 93.5 percent for the House and 70.5 percent for the Senate on both.

2028 party control shows the largest split

Republicans’ chances in the 2028 party-control market stood at 34.5 percent on Polymarket and 40.5 percent on Kalshi, according to PolymarketTrader. That was the widest difference between the venues in its comparison.

The report, published Oct 31, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET, covered 54 matched outcomes priced on both exchanges on October 31. Across that group, the average gap was 0.8 percentage points.

Agreement on 2026 congressional control

The exchanges had identical prices for 2026 House control, with Democrats at 93.5 percent on both, according to PolymarketTrader.

They also matched on 2026 Senate control, pricing Democrats at 70.5 percent on each venue. Those shared readings contrast with the larger split over 2028 party control.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The reported average gap of 0.8 percentage points indicates close pricing across the 54 matched outcomes, despite the wider divergence in the 2028 market.
  • Kalshi priced Republicans’ chances of 2028 party control higher than Polymarket did; the comparison does not establish which price was more accurate.
  • Identical prices for 2026 House and Senate control show agreement between the venues at the reported snapshot, not certainty about either outcome.

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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