Polymarket traders see a 54 percent chance of the Israel-Iran truce lasting through November
Polymarket traders raised the chance that the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026 to 54 percent, up 7.5 points in 24 hours. The market has 746,000 dollars in lifetime volume, with 23,000 dollars traded in the last day, and resolves on November 30, 2026.
Ceasefire probability moves higher
The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will continue through November 30, 2026 reached 54 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. That represents a 7.5-point increase over 24 hours.
The figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The move put the market-implied probability above 50 percent, with traders assigning a higher chance to the ceasefire continuing than to the alternative.
Trading activity and resolution
Lifetime trading volume stood at 746,000 dollars, including 23,000 dollars traded in the last day, according to PredictionBubbles. Those figures distinguish cumulative activity from trading during the period of the probability increase.
The contract resolves on November 30, 2026. The supplied report does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the shift, so the price change alone does not establish what prompted traders to reassess the outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- A modest majority probability: The 54 percent reading favors continuation, but still reflects substantial uncertainty.
- A clear daily repricing: The 7.5-point rise occurred over 24 hours, alongside 23,000 dollars in trading.
- A defined horizon: The contract concerns continuation through November 30, 2026, not the ceasefire’s durability beyond that date.
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