Anthropic mid-December IPO probability slips to 81.5 percent in Polymarket trading
PredictionBubbles, reading Polymarket prices on October 31, prices Anthropic completing an IPO by December 15, 2026 at 81.5 percent, down 11.0 points in 24 hours. The market has traded 327,000 dollars over its life, with 7,000 dollars in the last day, and resolves on December 16, 2026.
Anthropic’s probability of completing an IPO by December 15, 2026 stood at 81.5 percent on Polymarket on October 31, according to PredictionBubbles. The price fell 11.0 percentage points over the preceding 24 hours.
Deadline remains the focus
The contract concerns whether Anthropic completes an IPO by December 15, 2026—not whether it eventually goes public. Despite the daily decline, the market price remained substantially above an even chance.
PredictionBubbles’ report was published on Oct 31, 2026 at 7:15 AM ET. The supplied summary identifies no company announcement or other development explaining the repricing.
Trading activity and resolution
Lifetime trading volume totaled 327,000 dollars, with 7,000 dollars traded in the last day, according to PredictionBubbles. Those figures describe trading activity rather than the amount backing either outcome.
The market resolves on December 16, 2026, one day after the IPO deadline. That distinction matters when interpreting a contract tied to completion within a specific period.
What it means for prediction markets
- A lower probability, not a reversal: The 11.0-point decline left completion by the deadline priced at 81.5 percent.
- Timing defines the outcome: An IPO after December 15, 2026 would fall outside the stated window.
- The cause is unestablished: The supplied reporting provides prices and volume, but no explanation for the move.
Sources & attribution
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