Probability of Bitcoin finishing between $76,000 and $78,000 climbs to 74 percent
Polymarket's October 31 Bitcoin price market priced the 76,000 to 78,000 dollar range at 74 percent, up 44.9 points, with 82,900 dollars traded, while Bitcoin above 70,000 dollars on October 31 was priced at 99.9 percent.
Bitcoin range contract rises to 74 percent
Polymarket’s market for Bitcoin’s October 31 price assigned a 74 percent probability to the $76,000–$78,000 range, according to PolymarketTrader. That reading was up 44.9 points.
The report, published Oct 31, 2026, at 5:15 AM ET, also recorded $82,900 traded in the range market. The supplied summary did not specify the period over which the probability increased.
Above-$70,000 outcome near certainty
Bitcoin finishing above $70,000 on October 31 was priced at 99.9 percent, according to PolymarketTrader. That outcome represents a broader price condition than the $76,000–$78,000 band.
The two readings indicate substantially greater market confidence in Bitcoin exceeding $70,000 than in its landing within the narrower range. Neither probability establishes Bitcoin’s actual price or the eventual settlement outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- A large repricing: The 44.9-point increase brought the $76,000–$78,000 outcome to 74 percent, though the summary provides no explanation for the move.
- Different conditions, different probabilities: The 99.9 percent reading concerns only the above-$70,000 threshold; it does not imply equivalent confidence in the narrower band.
- Limited trading context: The reported $82,900 shows activity in the range market, but the supplied material does not include order-book depth or settlement details.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PolymarketTrader”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.