Kalshi midterm tracker records 268.6 million traded contracts as election nears
The live tracker updated October 31 put Democrats at 68 percent to control the Senate and 93 percent to control the House on Kalshi, with 268.6 million contracts traded across Senate, House and chamber-control markets and 25.8 million traded in the last 24 hours.
Kalshi’s midterm-election tracker put Democrats at 68 percent to control the Senate and 93 percent to control the House in its October 31 update, according to PredictionMarketPicks.
The tracker recorded 268.6 million contracts traded across Senate, House and chamber-control markets. Of that total, 25.8 million contracts were traded in the last 24 hours.
A wider gap between the chambers
The reported prices favored Democratic control in both chambers, but the House reading was substantially higher than the Senate reading. The snapshot therefore showed a stronger market expectation of Democratic House control than of Democratic Senate control.
PredictionMarketPicks’ report was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 5:15 AM ET. The supplied summary does not include earlier prices or a breakdown of trading volume by chamber, limiting comparisons of price movement and activity across individual markets.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 68 percent Senate and 93 percent House readings represent market-implied probabilities in the reported snapshot, not confirmed election outcomes.
- The 268.6 million-contract total covers multiple market categories; it should not be read as the volume of either chamber-control contract alone.
- The 25.8 million contracts traded in the last 24 hours measure recent activity, but the summary does not establish whether that trading pushed Democratic probabilities higher or lower.
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