Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 31, 2026 · 4:54 AM ET

Kalshi leads the Oct. 31 snapshot

Prediction-market trading totaled $1.36B across 9 venues on Oct. 31, 2026, as of the supplied update published at 4:54 AM ET. Kalshi accounted for $1.23B of that activity.

The accompanying news-search summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. Results instead resurfaced material already used or held back that day, including an item concerning Kalshi and a 76ers partnership.

Volume measures need context

According to defirate.com, its volume presentation values contracts at their $1 face value. The supplied source excerpt separately lists $29.4B in dollars actually paid and $4.4B over the last 24 hours.

The excerpt does not specify the period covered by the $29.4B figure or provide enough detail to reconcile its rolling 24-hour total with the Oct. 31 snapshot. Those figures should therefore remain distinct rather than be treated as interchangeable measures of trading activity.

What it means for prediction markets

• Kalshi represents the bulk of the reported $1.36B across 9 venues, making the snapshot primarily a measure of activity on that platform.
• Face-value volume and dollars actually paid are different measures; comparisons require consistent definitions and time windows.
• The supplied news search offers no fresh platform development to explain the trading total. It also provides no contract-level prices or volumes from which to assess changes in implied probabilities.

The “None” outcome in Polymarket’s Senate swing-states market was priced at 23%, with $2.6M traded over 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate’s odds hub. That outcome represents Republicans winning none of the Senate swing states covered by the market.

DeFi Rate ranked the market second among its most-traded markets. The reported volume applies to the market overall, not specifically to trading in “None.”

A snapshot with limited detail

The supplied summary places the price observations between Oct. 31, 4:26 AM and 4:56 AM ET. The headline was published on Oct 31, 2026 at 4:54 AM ET, so the observation window extends beyond that publication timestamp.

The available material does not identify the states included, provide prices for competing outcomes or describe the market’s resolution criteria. It therefore supports a snapshot of pricing and activity, rather than a state-by-state assessment or a conclusion about how expectations have changed.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 23% price is outcome-specific: It concerns Republicans winning none of the covered swing states, not overall Senate control.
• Volume is not directional evidence: The $2.6M traded in 24 hours does not establish whether traders were moving toward or away from “None.”
• Timing and scope matter: The figures reflect the stated observation window; the supplied material does not establish subsequent prices or the precise set of races covered.