Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 29, 2026 · 1:39 PM ET

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) are asking Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket how they intend to guard against insider trading tied to the midterm elections, according to Bloomberg Law.

The senators sent a letter Wednesday to Kalshi Inc. CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Their inquiry puts election-related trading safeguards under bipartisan Senate scrutiny.

Questions over safeguards and enforcement

According to Bloomberg Law, Warren and Curtis raised concerns about the legitimacy of election wagers and whether the companies are sidestepping enforcement frameworks intended to protect consumers. The inquiry therefore extends beyond insider-trading prevention to the protections surrounding these markets.

The letter follows reports of concerning election-related activity on prediction markets, Bloomberg Law reported. The supplied excerpt does not describe specific incidents or include responses from either company.

A potential focus for the Banking Committee

Bloomberg Law also identified the issue as a likely subject of further examination by Warren if she becomes chair of the Senate Banking Committee. That prospect is conditional; the available reporting does not establish a committee investigation or an enforcement action.

What it means for prediction markets

• Bipartisan attention: The joint inquiry from Warren and Curtis shows that scrutiny of election wagers crosses party lines.
• Market integrity is central: The senators are seeking answers about insider-trading safeguards and consumer protections, not just the availability of election contracts.
• Outcomes remain unresolved: The provided reporting establishes that questions have been sent, but gives no company responses, findings of misconduct or resulting changes to election markets.

Golden State’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at a 9.0% market-implied probability, down 29.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $2.4M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract appeared among the largest downward moves on the site’s sports board.

The supplied summary places that snapshot at the Oct. 29, 17:40 UTC crawl, which covered 524 open markets with $756.2M in total traded volume. The material does not identify Golden State’s opponent, the specific event or the contract’s resolution deadline.

A sharp move, without an identified catalyst

PredictionBubbles ranks its movers by the absolute change in implied probability over the preceding 24 hours. Its volume rankings are separate: the $2.4M figure represents total trading in the Golden State contract, not necessarily activity during the period of the price decline.

The site describes scores, lineups, injuries and form as factors that can move sports contracts, but the supplied material does not establish what drove Golden State’s repricing. The 9.0% reading reflects the price set by exchange traders, rather than an independently assessed likelihood of victory.

Reading the board’s snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, its sports data refreshes every 15 minutes and draws from Kalshi and Polymarket. The supplied page lists 525 open sports markets—193 from Kalshi and 332 from Polymarket—rather than the 524 in the crawl summary. Those counts should be kept distinct rather than treated as a single synchronized snapshot.

PredictionBubbles displays exchange prices and does not accept wagers, hold funds or offer accounts. It also cautions that related contracts across venues can have different wording and resolution rules, limiting direct comparisons based on price alone.

What it means for prediction markets

• The decline is in percentage points: Golden State’s quoted probability fell 29.0 points to 9.0%, not merely 29.0% relative to its previous level.
• Volume does not explain the move: The $2.4M total establishes trading activity but does not identify its timing or the catalyst for the repricing.
• Contract details remain essential: Without the event, opponent and resolution terms, the snapshot supports a report on the price move—not a broader conclusion about Golden State’s prospects.
• Refresh timing matters: The board updates every 15 minutes, while the underlying exchanges trade continuously.