Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 29, 2026 · 8:39 AM ET

Kalshi has raised $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation as it expands beyond prediction markets, according to Reuters’ report published Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

Funding and expansion

Sequoia and Wellington co-led the financing round, Reuters reported. Tiger Global and Dragoneer also participated.

The fundraising puts Kalshi’s expansion alongside a substantial new capital raise. However, the available Reuters summary does not specify which businesses the company plans to enter or how it will allocate the proceeds.

The full source text was unavailable. Details beyond the headline and partial summary—including the expansion timetable—could not be established from the supplied material.

What it means for prediction markets

• The $1 billion financing and $40 billion valuation are the central reported developments for readers tracking investment in prediction-market operators.
• Kalshi’s move beyond prediction markets raises questions about its future business mix, but the available material does not establish any changes to its existing markets or products.

Airspace-closure odds decline

The Polymarket contract on whether Israeli airspace will close by December 31, 2026 was priced at 26.5%, down 6.0 probability points, with $207K traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among its declining markets.

The summary ties that listing to an Oct. 29, 2026 crawl at 12:12 UTC, using data read at 11:38 UTC. The supplied PredictionBubbles page carries a later venue-data timestamp of 12:39 UTC but does not reproduce the contract’s individual entry. The quoted price and volume therefore belong to the supplied snapshot, rather than a separately confirmed later reading.

What the move captures

According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. It ranks changes in probability points, not relative percentages; the reported 6.0-point decline should be read on that basis.

The supplied material identifies no news event or official announcement behind the Israeli airspace contract’s decline. It establishes a change in pricing, not a corresponding change in airspace operations or evidence that a closure will or will not occur.

PredictionBubbles also distinguishes trading volume from price movement: volume provides context but does not affect the movers ranking. The $207K figure alone does not establish order-book depth or explain what drove the repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Lower implied probability: The 26.5% snapshot reflects a downward reassessment of closure by December 31, 2026, not certainty about the outcome.
• Timestamp discipline matters: The earlier contract snapshot and the page’s later 12:39 UTC timestamp should not be treated as one verified reading.
• The catalyst remains unspecified: The provided reporting does not connect the 6.0-point decline to a particular development.
• Resolution details are absent: The supplied material does not include the contract’s precise definition of an airspace closure or its settlement criteria.