Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 49.5% on Polymarket, down 7.0 points, on $695K traded · Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship priced at 9.6% on Kalshi, up 5.9 points, on $12.2M traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
PredictionBubbles' sports board, fresh on its Oct. 28, 10:56 UTC read, lists the Tampa Bay Kalshi championship contract among its upward sports moves, in a sports…
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The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel–Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 was priced at 49.5%, down 7.0 points, in the supplied market update published Oct 28, 2026 · 6:54 AM ET. Reported trading volume was $695K.
The update lists predictionbubbles.net as its source, but the page text was unavailable. The supplied material therefore provides the market figures without an accessible account of what drove the decline.
The accompanying news check identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. Search results resurfaced only material already used that day, picked up by website-only batches, or included on a banned list.
That leaves no fresh reported development in the supplied material to connect to the price move. The decline describes a change in market pricing, not independently verified evidence that the ceasefire’s status has changed.
Tampa Bay’s contract to win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship was priced at a 9.6% market-implied probability on Kalshi, up 5.9 percentage points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract had $12.2M in total traded volume.
The figures came from the sports board’s Oct. 28, 10:56 UTC reading. Tampa Bay appeared among its upward sports moves, although the supplied material does not identify a specific catalyst for the increase.
The price change represents a sharp increase in traders’ assessment of Tampa Bay’s championship prospects. Even after that rise, however, the contract’s implied probability remained below 10%; the move should not be confused with a shift to favorite status.
The $12.2M figure measures total traded volume, not money traded during the latest 24-hour window. PredictionBubbles separately ranks markets by absolute probability movement over 24 hours and by cumulative trading volume.
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports page tracks 507 open markets: 209 on Kalshi and 298 on Polymarket. Its embedded visualization displays the 300 largest by volume, while the full board includes all 507.
PredictionBubbles refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying exchanges continues between updates. The site aggregates exchange-published prices rather than accepting wagers, and cautions that related contracts across venues can differ in wording and resolution rules.