Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026 — Grok priced at 3.2% on Kalshi, up 1.0 points, on $2.1M traded · Minnesota win the 2027 Pro Football Championship priced at 5.0% on Kalshi, up 2.0 points, on $7.0M traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
PredictionBubbles' sports board lists the Minnesota championship contract among its traded sports markets, in a sports markets category distinct from the tech lead. It…
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Grok was priced at 3.2% on Kalshi in the market asking which AI will be best on Dec 31, 2026, according to the supplied market snapshot published Oct 26, 2026, at 8:39 AM ET. Its probability rose 1.0 percentage points, with $2.1M traded.
The accompanying news check identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. Search results instead resurfaced material already used that day, assigned to website-only batches or excluded by a banned list. The supplied material therefore does not establish a fresh news catalyst for Grok’s move.
According to PredictionBubbles, its technology dashboard reports probability changes over the previous 24 hours and refreshes its data every 15 minutes. That distinction matters: the reported move covers a much longer period than the latest news check.
PredictionBubbles aggregates prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, rather than operating a trading venue itself. Its technology page lists 59 markets, comprising 13 from Kalshi and 46 from Polymarket, and ranks them by total traded volume.
The supplied page explains the dashboard’s methodology but does not include the specific Grok listing or the contract’s resolution criteria. The 3.2% price, 1.0-point increase and $2.1M volume are provided in the headline snapshot; the material does not define how “best AI” will be determined.
Minnesota’s contract to win the 2027 Pro Football Championship was priced at a 5.0% implied probability on Kalshi, up 2.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $7.0M in total traded volume, according to PredictionBubbles’ sports-market listing. The snapshot was published Oct 26, 2026, at 8:39 AM ET.
The move indicates a higher trader-assigned chance of a Minnesota championship, although the price still assigns a low probability to that outcome. The supplied material does not identify a specific catalyst for the increase.
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports board tracks 508 open markets: 193 on Kalshi and 315 on Polymarket. Its embedded display shows the 300 largest by volume, while the full board covers all 508.
The site separates trading activity from price movement. Volume rankings use total money traded, while its movers list ranks contracts by the absolute change in implied probability over the preceding 24 hours. Minnesota’s $7.0M figure is therefore a cumulative activity measure, not a measure of trading during the latest price increase.
PredictionBubbles refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. The reported 5.0% is an exchange-derived probability at the snapshot, rather than a bookmaker’s line or an independent forecast from the aggregator.
The supplied source provides no Minnesota-specific price history, resolution deadline or contract rules. PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions on Kalshi and Polymarket can have different wording and settlement criteria, limiting direct comparisons.