Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026 priced at 32.0% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points, on $1.1M traded · Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals priced at 13.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 points, on $10.0M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Polymarket Michigan Senate contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the sports…
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The Polymarket contract on Republicans winning the Michigan Senate race in 2026 was priced at 32.0%, up 3.0 probability points, with $1.1M traded, in the update published Oct 26, 2026, at 7:54 AM ET. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the upward moves in its political/election category, separate from sports markets.
The change reflects a higher market-implied probability of a Republican victory over the preceding 24 hours. It is a 3.0-point increase, not a 3.0% relative gain, and the 32.0% price still places that outcome below an even chance.
The supplied material does not identify a poll, campaign development or other event behind the repricing. It also does not specify the period covered by the Michigan contract’s $1.1M traded figure, so that amount should not be treated as volume generated during the move.
According to PredictionBubbles, the board uses prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 26 Oct 2026, 11:42 UTC. Rankings measure the absolute change in probability points over 24 hours; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine placement.
The board covered 2,023 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures to limit the influence of settlement-driven swings. Its table displayed the top 150 of 537 markets that moved at least one probability point. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualified.
Philadelphia’s market-implied probability of winning the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals stood at 13.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 percentage points, with $10.0M traded, in the supplied snapshot published Oct 26, 2026, at 7:54 AM ET.
The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore provides no fresh reported catalyst for the price increase.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its sports-market tracker reports probability changes over the last 24 hours and displays total traded volume where exchanges publish it. Those are separate measures: the $10.0M figure should not be interpreted as money traded during the latest price move.
The supplied source page explains the tracker’s methodology but does not reproduce the Philadelphia contract’s individual listing. The specific price, change and volume figures come from the supplied headline rather than a contract-level entry in the source excerpt.
PredictionBubbles says it tracks 513 open sports markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, comprising 195 from Kalshi and 318 from Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.
According to predictionbubbles.net, contract prices reflect probabilities established by exchange participants. The site also cautions that related questions on different venues can have different wording and resolution rules, limiting direct comparisons.