Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 25, 2026 · 2:09 AM ET

DraftKings’ DKeX placed third among U.S. prediction-market exchanges for the week ended October 18, recording $1.04 billion in notional volume, according to Inside Bitcoins, citing Aldrin Research. Its market share reached 3.57%, compared with 2.33% three weeks earlier.

Kalshi led the weekly volume standings, with Polymarket in second, substantially behind the leader. DraftKings chief executive Jason Robins highlighted DKeX’s third-place position during a question-and-answer session with CNBC’s Contessa Brewer at the NEXTPredict Summit in New York. The figures describe a single week, and Inside Bitcoins noted that Aldrin Research’s complete ranking table was not supplied.

An exchange strategy with state-by-state limits

DraftKings, one of the two largest U.S. online sportsbooks, operates DKeX internally rather than through a partner, retaining the full economics of contracts traded on the exchange. According to Inside Bitcoins, Robins said non-sports activity, including financial contracts, had grown more strongly than expected. Those products would remain available if courts ruled against sports event contracts.

DraftKings Predictions is available in 38 states, but offers its complete range of event contracts in only 18, including California, Florida and Texas. In states where DraftKings takes conventional sports wagers, including Colorado, New York and Pennsylvania, its prediction offering is limited to financial event contracts. Robins said that broader access there would have jeopardized gaming licenses, and argued that DraftKings could fare well under either outcome of litigation that could reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

Legal exposure remains central

Robins argued that competing prediction-market companies have more riding on the legal outcome. Inside Bitcoins also reported that Kalshi has faced CFTC scrutiny concerning its own trading activity, while Polymarket markets have been involved in at least three CFTC insider-trading investigations.

The exchange’s growth has not translated into gains for DraftKings shares, which have reportedly declined more than 40% this year. Robins attributed public-market reluctance to uncertainty surrounding the federally regulated exchange business, according to Inside Bitcoins.

In Florida, the Seminole Tribe sued DraftKings and Robins in Broward County Circuit Court in October, alleging that the company’s prediction markets and Pick6 product function as illegal, unlicensed sportsbooks. Robins questioned why DraftKings had been targeted when other prediction-market operators also serve Florida, while saying he could not explain the reason.

What it means for prediction markets

• The ranking has a narrow scope: DKeX’s third-place result applies to notional volume for the week ended October 18, not an established long-term position. Weekly standings can change.
• Product availability depends on location: DraftKings’ 38-state footprint does not mean sports event contracts are available throughout that territory; only 18 states receive the full offering.
• Non-sports contracts provide a separate business line: Financial markets could remain available even if courts reject sports event contracts, making product mix relevant alongside headline volume.
• Legal uncertainty spans several fronts: The Florida lawsuit and reported CFTC scrutiny of competitors remain distinct issues; the reported volume figures do not resolve either.

Kylian Mbappé’s contract to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or was priced at a 16.7% market-implied probability on Polymarket, up 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours, with $6.5M traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ sports board, the contract ranked among the category’s largest upward moves.

The snapshot, published Oct 25, 2026 · 2:09 AM ET, reflects traders’ pricing rather than a bookmaker’s assessment. The supplied material does not identify news or a sporting development behind the increase.

A sharp move, distinct from volume

PredictionBubbles ranks movers by the absolute change in probability over the preceding 24 hours. Its volume rankings are separate: the $6.5M figure represents total traded volume, not necessarily money exchanged during the period in which Mbappé’s probability rose.

The board’s most-traded sports contract at its latest refresh concerned whether Shakhtar Donetsk would win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship, with $35.2M traded on Polymarket. That distinction matters: a contract’s price movement and its accumulated trading activity measure different things.

A periodically refreshed snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, its sports coverage includes 538 open markets—218 from Kalshi and 320 from Polymarket. The embedded display features the 300 largest by volume, while the full board covers all 538.

The service refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. PredictionBubbles displays exchange-published prices and does not accept wagers, hold funds or offer accounts.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is in percentage points: Mbappé’s 9.5-point increase describes a change in implied probability, not a 9.5% relative gain.
• Volume is not directional evidence: The $6.5M total does not establish how much trading drove the latest rise or explain its cause.
• Timing matters: A board updated every 15 minutes may differ from the exchange price between refreshes.
• Cross-venue comparisons require care: PredictionBubbles notes that related contracts can have different wording and resolution rules.