Hourly Briefing · Oct 25, 2026 · 1:24 AM ET

Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 25, 2026 · 1:24 AM ET

2 stories in this edition: Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia priced at 9.0% on Polymarket, down 5.0 points, on $337K traded · Another Fed rate hike in 2026 priced at 76.5% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points, on $1.1M traded

Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia priced at 9.0% on Polymarket, down 5.0 points, on $337K traded

PredictionBubbles' movers and politics boards list the Srdanović prime-minister contract among their downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct…

Srdanović contract moves lower

The Polymarket contract on whether Ilija Srdanović will be the next prime minister of Serbia was priced at 9.0%, down 5.0 percentage points, with $337K traded in the snapshot published Oct 25, 2026, at 1:24 AM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers and politics boards placed the contract among declining political markets. The site measures probability changes over the preceding 24 hours, distinguishing that movement from its separate rankings by total traded volume.

What the data establishes

The supplied material identifies the repricing but provides no Serbia-specific reporting explaining it. It therefore does not establish whether the decline followed political news or a change in traders’ assessments without a documented catalyst.

According to PredictionBubbles, its politics dashboard covers 963 open markets: 220 from Kalshi and 743 from Polymarket. Its embedded display shows the 300 largest by volume, while the broader board provides access to the full politics set.

The dashboard refreshes every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. PredictionBubbles describes its service as a display of market prices rather than an independent forecast, so the 9.0% reading represents a market-implied probability at the reported snapshot—not a confirmed assessment of the eventual leadership outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

Direction and level are separate signals: The contract fell 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours and stood at 9.0% in the published snapshot.
Volume is not the day’s flow: The $337K figure is total traded volume, not a measure of how much traded during the decline.
The catalyst remains unverified: The supplied reporting documents a price move but does not connect it to a specific political development.
Timing matters: A dashboard refreshed every 15 minutes can differ from the continuously traded venue price.

Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/politics/

Another Fed rate hike in 2026 priced at 76.5% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points, on $1.1M traded

No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used, web-taken, struck or banned (the $2.7B weekly crypto…

Fed hike probability rises

A Polymarket contract on another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 was priced at 76.5%, up 3.0 percentage points, with $1.1M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot published Oct 25, 2026, at 1:24 AM ET.

The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. The supplied material does not establish a specific catalyst for the increase.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance dashboard reports probability changes over the previous 24 hours and refreshes data every 15 minutes. Traded volume is reported separately from price movement: it measures total trading activity, rather than the amount traded during the latest increase.

The dashboard covers 203 open finance markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, comprising 22 on Kalshi and 181 on Polymarket. Its coverage includes monetary-policy decisions, inflation, GDP, recession questions, and index and commodity levels.

At its latest refresh, predictionbubbles.net identified the Polymarket contract asking whether Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting as its most-traded finance market, with $18.7M traded. That question concerns a single meeting, unlike the broader contract on another hike in 2026.

What it means for prediction markets

The price signals a market expectation, not a confirmed decision. The 76.5% reading indicates that another hike in 2026 is the favored outcome in the supplied snapshot.
Volume and movement are distinct. The $1.1M represents total reported trading, not necessarily fresh activity behind the 3.0-point rise.
Contract scope matters. An unchanged-rate outcome at the October 2026 meeting is not equivalent to ruling out another hike during 2026.
Comparisons require attention to terms. According to predictionbubbles.net, related contracts across venues can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.

Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/finance/

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