Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders have given at least $5 million combined to political groups this cycle, Reuters reports · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election priced at 22.0% on Kalshi, up 3 points, on $3.8M traded
Reuters, published this morning, reports the pair's first significant foray into political giving, slightly favoring Republicans at $2.7 million, including a previously…
PredictionBubbles' movers board, refreshed to its Oct. 22, 09:41 UTC snapshot, lists the Lula outright Kalshi contract among its upward political moves, in a…
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Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders have contributed at least $5 million combined to political groups this cycle, according to Reuters reporting published on Oct 22, 2026, at 6:24 AM ET.
Reuters describes the contributions as the pair’s first significant move into political giving. The reported total combines donations from the companies and their founders, rather than identifying company spending alone.
Republicans received $2.7 million, with Reuters characterizing the overall giving as slightly favoring Republicans. The available summary does not break down contributions by company, founder or recipient group.
The full Reuters article was unavailable for review. The supplied summary therefore provides no basis for identifying individual recipients, the timing of particular donations or any connection between contributions and policy decisions.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s contract to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election was priced at 22.0% on Kalshi, up 3 probability points, with $3.8M traded, according to the supplied market update. PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the contract among rising political markets in its Oct. 22, 09:41 UTC snapshot.
The increase represents a change in traders’ pricing over 24 hours, rather than a relative percentage gain. According to PredictionBubbles, its board measures moves in probability points and draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket every 15 minutes.
The supplied material does not identify a news event, poll or announcement behind Lula’s move. It also does not specify the period covered by the contract’s $3.8M traded figure, so that amount should not be treated as confirmed 24-hour turnover.
The supplied PredictionBubbles page carries a later refresh time of 22 Oct 2026, 10:11 UTC, compared with the summary’s 09:41 UTC snapshot. Its extracted text explains the board’s methodology but does not display Lula’s individual contract entry, leaving the later price unconfirmed in the material provided.
According to PredictionBubbles, the board ranks 2,008 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days and excludes contracts without a valid 24-hour comparison. Rankings depend on the size of the probability-point change, not trading volume or liquidity. Lula’s reported increase therefore signals upward repricing, but does not establish its cause or durability.