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Hourly Briefing ·

Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 16, 2026 · 10:39 AM ET

2 stories in this edition: Sports at about 82% of Kalshi volume, with monthly U.S. contracts at 49.0B in July · Pete Buttigieg as 2028 Democratic presidential nominee at 4.9% on Kalshi, on $6.5M traded

Sports at about 82% of Kalshi volume, with monthly U.S. contracts at 49.0B in July

Quiet quarter-hour — no significant new platform headline in the last 15 minutes, so this fresh industry report leads, in a volume/metrics category different from the…

Sports accounted for approximately 82% of Kalshi’s U.S. prediction-market volume over the last twelve months, according to an August report from Eilers & Krejcik cited in an October 16, 2026 NewMediaWire release. The research firm estimated total monthly U.S. prediction-market activity at 49.0 billion contracts in July 2026, describing growth of approximately 49x versus 0.9 billion in August 2025.

The release was originally published on Benzinga and disclosed as sponsored content produced with a third-party partner. Its figures provide a snapshot of the industry’s expansion, while its discussion of Sportradar reflects the company’s case for serving that market.

Sports activity gains weight

Eilers & Krejcik estimated that U.S. sports prediction markets represented 30% of combined prediction-market and online sports betting handle in June 2026, compared with 1–2% one year earlier. That comparison uses “handle-analog,” a prediction-market measure comparable to the total amount wagered, rather than the contract count used in the July estimate.

U.S. prediction-market app downloads peaked above 6 million in June 2026, led by Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the research cited by NewMediaWire. Eilers & Krejcik also identified exchange fundraising targets implying valuations of up to $40 billion. The release describes Kalshi and Polymarket as regulated by the CFTC rather than state gaming authorities, giving them access to states without regulated sports betting, and says FanDuel and DraftKings are developing prediction-market products.

Sportradar targets the supporting infrastructure

Sportradar (NASDAQ: SRAD) argues that this expansion creates demand for services it already supplies to sports betting and media businesses: sports data, live odds, fan engagement, customer acquisition capabilities and integrity tools. Founder and CEO Carsten Koerl said prediction markets could broaden the company’s U.S. addressable market through additional states, participants and sports engagement, supporting higher revenue over time.

According to NewMediaWire, Sportradar says its existing technology, infrastructure, sports rights and league relationships can support prediction-market customers without requiring an entirely new operating foundation. Its prospective customers include exchanges, market makers and brokers that need data for pricing, liquidity and settlement. The company says it works only with authorized, registered, licensed operators and follows applicable regulations in each market where it operates.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Sports dominate Kalshi’s reported activity: The approximately 82% share makes sports central to interpreting its volume trends, rather than a secondary category.
  • The metrics measure different things: July’s 49.0 billion contracts, June’s 30% handle-analog share and June’s app-download peak should not be treated as interchangeable indicators.
  • Growth extends beyond exchanges: Sportradar’s stated opportunity includes supplying market makers and brokers, linking its strategy to broader ecosystem activity rather than a single platform’s success.
  • Source context matters: The industry estimates are attributed to Eilers & Krejcik, but the release carrying them is sponsored content, and Sportradar’s revenue opportunity remains a company expectation.
  1. Newmediawire (newmediawire.com)https://www.newmediawire.com/news/the-prediction-markets-boom-why-sportradar-is-confident-it-doesn-t-need-to-pick-a-winner-7090692

Pete Buttigieg as 2028 Democratic presidential nominee at 4.9% on Kalshi, on $6.5M traded

PredictionBubbles' heating-up board lists the nominee contract at 4.9% with no 24-hour move — a contract not featured in any earlier edition today, in a…

Pete Buttigieg’s contract to become the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee was priced at a 4.9% market-implied probability on Kalshi, with $6.5M traded, in the Oct 16, 2026 · 10:39 AM ET snapshot. According to PredictionBubbles’ heating-up board, the contract showed no change over the previous 24 hours.

The contract had not appeared in any earlier edition that day, according to the supplied summary. Its appearance therefore marks a change in coverage, not a reported increase in the probability of Buttigieg securing the nomination.

Activity without a probability move

According to PredictionBubbles, its heating-up ranking uses a score from 0 to 100 to identify unusual activity. The largest input is trading over the past 24 hours relative to a market’s usual pace; probability movement is secondary, with a small additional weighting for contracts nearing resolution.

That methodology matters here: inclusion does not necessarily signal rising confidence in Buttigieg. The supplied material does not provide his contract’s score or recent trading pace, so it does not establish precisely what drove its appearance.

What the volume tells readers

The $6.5M figure represents total traded volume, rather than money currently committed to open positions or liquidity available to trade. PredictionBubbles distinguishes those measures and refreshes its Kalshi and Polymarket price data every 15 minutes.

The 4.9% reading is a market price expressed as a probability, not an independently verified likelihood. With no reported 24-hour move, this snapshot offers evidence of an active contract being surfaced, rather than a directional repricing of the nomination contest.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Visibility is not momentum: A new appearance on the board does not establish that Buttigieg’s nomination prospects have improved.
  • Volume and liquidity are different: The $6.5M traded figure does not reveal current order-book depth or the value of outstanding positions.
  • The activity signal has limits: Without the contract’s score or recent trading breakdown, readers cannot quantify how unusual its activity was.
  1. Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/

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