Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 15, 2026 · 3:24 PM ET

Kalshi accounted for 75.6% of tracked prediction-market trading volume in the 30 days to October 7, according to a DataWallet comparison citing DeFi Rate data. Polymarket US represented 11.6%, while Polymarket’s international platform accounted for 5.3%. Kalshi also had $2.5 billion in open interest on October 7.

Scale comes with a measurement caveat

DataWallet’s comparison, last updated October 10, 2026, says its figures were verified on October 9, 2026. It reports that September 2026 set monthly records for Kalshi, with $60.7 billion in trading, and Polymarket US, with $8.8 billion. Polymarket’s international platform recorded $4.5 billion over the 30 days to October 7 and had $339 million in open interest.

Those trading totals do not measure the dollars traders actually paid. According to DataWallet, the data providers value each traded contract at its $1 potential payout. Across all tracked platforms, reported volume of $89.4 billion corresponded to $23.4 billion paid. Open interest is a separate measure: the value of contracts still awaiting settlement.

Sports dominate, but political depth differs

Sports and multi-event positions account for much of the activity behind the headline shares. DataWallet reports that combos represented 64.3% of Kalshi’s volume in the week ending October 4, with single sports contracts contributing about 19.8%. Sports generated 98.4% of Polymarket US volume in the 30 days to October 7 and 46.2% of recent activity on its international platform.

The ranking differs in politics. Citing Pew Research Center, DataWallet reports that Polymarket recorded $1.3 billion in political trading in June 2026, compared with $261 million for Kalshi. The comparison describes Polymarket’s political markets as deeper, underscoring that overall platform volume and liquidity in a particular category are not interchangeable.

What it means for prediction markets

• The lead is in tracked volume. Kalshi’s 75.6% share applies to the stated 30-day window and dataset, rather than every possible measure of platform activity.
• Volume is not cash committed. Payout-based turnover and open interest describe different aspects of trading; neither should be substituted for the amount traders paid.
• Category mix matters. Sports-heavy activity helps explain the aggregate rankings, while the cited political-market figures favor Polymarket.
• The snapshot has a cutoff. The comparison was updated October 10, 2026, but the headline volume window and open-interest figures end on October 7.

PredictArena Inc. announced its launch on Oct. 15, 2026, pairing a creator-focused prediction market platform with an introducing broker relationship with Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), according to a company announcement distributed by PRNewswire and published on Morningstar.

The Chicago-datelined announcement positions PredictArena as a way for fans to engage with creators, sports handicappers and former athletes through prediction markets. The platform is available on the web, with an app release planned in the coming weeks.

Creators as a distribution channel

PredictArena allows creators to establish profiles, post predictions and connect their audiences with markets tied to subjects they follow. The company also says creators can benefit economically from participation, although the announcement does not explain the compensation structure.

Austin Pfenninger, Founder and CEO of PredictArena, described creators and their existing audiences as central to the company’s distribution strategy. The platform’s stated aim is to make audience engagement more participatory while providing creators with additional economic opportunities.

CDNA relationship underpins the launch

PredictArena says it will draw on CDNA’s markets and exchange expertise while concentrating its own efforts on creator-led distribution. That division of focus places the creator-facing experience at the center of PredictArena’s launch strategy.

The announcement does not provide trading-volume figures, user numbers or a detailed market lineup. It therefore establishes the platform’s launch and partnership framework, rather than demonstrating the scale of audience adoption.

What it means for prediction markets

• Distribution is the central proposition: PredictArena seeks to connect existing creator communities with prediction markets; the announcement does not establish how much trading activity those communities will generate.
• Creator economics remain unspecified: Economic participation is part of the offering, but the release provides no compensation terms.
• Access is being phased in: Web availability precedes the planned app release in the coming weeks, making mobile access a forthcoming rollout milestone.
• The source is a company release: Morningstar identifies the material as third-party content that it has not endorsed, reviewed or verified.

Ottawa favored before puck drop

Ottawa is the favorite on Polymarket ahead of the Islanders–Senators NHL game on Oct. 15, 2026, scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. The supplied pricing snapshot puts the Senators at 61 cents, implying a 61% chance of winning, and the Islanders at 40 cents.

The accompanying summary cites about $124,600 in total trading volume. Polymarket’s supplied market page separately reports $125,271, displayed in rounded form as $125.27K, with $116K attributed to the moneyline. Those figures distinguish activity across the matchup’s markets from trading on the outright winner alone.

According to Polymarket, the market opened on Sep. 18, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET and lists Oct. 15, 2026, as its end date. The provided material does not include a price history establishing how Ottawa’s current advantage developed.

Settlement goes beyond regulation

Polymarket’s moneyline settles on the game’s winner, counting overtime and shootouts. For settlement calculations, a shootout gives the winning side one additional goal.

The other listed contracts ask different questions. Ottawa must win by 2 or more goals for the margin market to settle in favor of the Senators; any other result favors the Islanders. Four scoring-total markets require combined goals of at least 5, 6, 7 or 8, respectively, to settle as “Over,” with lower totals settling as “Under.”

According to Polymarket’s rules, a postponement keeps the markets open until the game is finished. Cancellation without a make-up game instead produces a 50-50 settlement.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 61% reading applies to an outright Ottawa win. It does not indicate the probability of a Senators victory by 2 or more goals.
• Volume measures differ. The $125,271 page total covers the matchup’s markets, while the moneyline displays $116K.
• Extra play affects settlement. Overtime and the additional goal assigned after a shootout count toward the final result and scoring totals.
• The scheduled end date is conditional. A postponement extends the market until completion; cancellation without a make-up game triggers 50-50 resolution.