Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 15, 2026 · 7:54 AM ET

September leads Polymarket US activity

Polymarket US has recorded $27.4B in trading volume in 2026 through Oct. 15, according to DeFi Rate’s venue tracker. September remains its busiest month, accounting for $8.8B of that total.

October volume so far stands at $5.7B, giving the venue an 11.1% share, according to DeFi Rate. For the week of Oct. 12, the tracker reports $1.15B in volume and a 10.8% share.

The tracker’s rolling-period figures show $11.6B in contracts traded over Sep 15-Oct 14, 2026. That represented 12% of prediction-market volume and an increase of 139% from the preceding 30 days.

DeFi Rate separately reports $3.3B in dollars paid for Sep 15-Oct 14, 2026. That measure is distinct from the $11.6B contract-volume figure, making the choice of metric important when comparing activity.

What it means for prediction markets

• The reporting window matters: The 10.8% weekly share, 11.1% October share and 12% rolling-period share describe different intervals, not directly comparable snapshots.
• Growth and market share measure different things: The 139% increase captures growth in Polymarket US contract volume against the preceding 30 days; the 12% figure measures its share of prediction-market volume.
• Volume is not an outcome forecast: These venue-level totals describe trading activity, rather than probabilities for individual contracts.

Hacksaw Group launched a business-to-business prediction-markets platform on October 15, 2026, offering operators a way to introduce peer-to-peer markets using its existing technology and distribution network. The announcement came in a company release distributed by ACCESS Newswire and published on Morningstar. Hacksaw’s shares trade on Nasdaq Stockholm under HACK.

The Malta Gaming Authority (MGA) also approved an expansion of Hacksaw’s B2B Critical Gaming Supply License. The licence now includes Type 3 Gaming Services alongside its existing Type 1 Gaming Services authorization, permitting B2B peer-to-peer prediction-market services within the MGA framework.

Infrastructure rather than a consumer marketplace

Hacksaw plans to supply the systems behind operators’ prediction markets rather than recruit users directly. Operators would retain control of their brands, customer relationships and user experiences, while avoiding the need to develop and maintain the underlying technology themselves.

The company says the platform was developed within its existing cost base, drawing on its technology and development team. Ana Vrabic Verdir, Group CEO of Hacksaw Group, framed the launch as an expansion into an adjacent business that can use the company’s established distribution capabilities and operator relationships.

Participation across an operator network

A central feature is a framework designed to combine peer-to-peer participation across Hacksaw’s operator network. The company argues that this could give new offerings access to a larger pool of participation at launch than operators could assemble individually. That remains an intended benefit, rather than a demonstrated outcome in the announcement.

Marcus Cordes, Operational CEO of Hacksaw Gaming, pointed to existing relationships across multiple jurisdictions, integrations and commercial infrastructure as the basis for simplifying operators’ entry. The release also cited global equity research and brokerage firm Bernstein’s estimate that annual prediction-market trading volumes could reach approximately $1 trillion by 2030. That figure is a sector forecast, not a projection of Hacksaw’s own activity.

What it means for prediction markets

• Distribution is the focus: Hacksaw is offering infrastructure to existing operators, rather than announcing a direct-to-consumer prediction marketplace.
• Shared participation is the key proposition: Pooling activity across operators is intended to ease the challenge of establishing new peer-to-peer markets; the announcement does not provide actual trading-volume results.
• The regulatory scope is specific: The licence extension covers B2B peer-to-peer prediction-market services under the MGA framework, not blanket authorization across jurisdictions.
• Forecasts remain distinct from execution: Bernstein’s approximately $1 trillion annual-volume estimate for 2030 describes potential sector growth, not guaranteed demand for this platform.