Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 7:24 PM ET

The top 1% of wallets generated 70% of congressional election trading volume on Polymarket’s international platform this cycle, according to Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) research reported by the New York Post. The findings, reported Oct. 14, show that a small group of accounts dominates activity even as midterm prediction markets expand.

Across Kalshi and Polymarket, trading tied to the November midterms has exceeded $220 million—more than twice the $92 million recorded throughout the 2024 congressional election cycle, according to Reuters reporting cited by the Post. ACDC examined more than 21,000 congressional election markets this cycle, versus 463 two years ago.

More contracts, concentrated activity

Much of the volume is clustered in a handful of races, particularly the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Senate elections in Maine, Michigan and South Carolina have also drawn substantial activity, according to the research.

The mix of contracts has changed sharply: victory-margin markets represent 58% of this year’s congressional markets, while contracts on outright winners account for 16%, down from 71% in 2024. Yet winner contracts still generate the vast majority of volume. ACDC researcher Michelle Kendler-Kretsch said many more narrowly defined markets have seen little trading, according to the Post.

Conduct and public confidence under scrutiny

The expansion has intensified concerns among policymakers and advocacy groups about insider trading and election confidence. NPR reported in May that unspecified campaign staffers had bet on races they worked on. Reuters reported that Kalshi suspended a handful of candidates for trading on their own contests. Kalshi prohibits politicians and campaign workers from election betting; it also permanently banned former Rep. George Santos after he bet on whether he would attend the State of the Union address earlier this year.

Polymarket told the Post that specialized surveillance and detection systems flag unusual political-market trading for investigators. The company also says its election markets are 98% accurate one day before voting. Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana defended prediction markets as a source of information generated by participants putting money behind their views. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday, meanwhile, found that most Americans oppose election betting through prediction markets.

What it means for prediction markets

• Volume does not establish broad participation. The 70% concentration figure concerns wallets on Polymarket’s international platform, not a measured share of individual traders across both exchanges.
• Contract proliferation is not the same as trading depth. More than 21,000 markets offer a wider range of outcomes to trade, but activity remains concentrated in outright-winner contracts and selected races.
• Integrity claims warrant separate scrutiny. Platform surveillance statements and Polymarket’s accuracy claim do not resolve the concerns raised by campaign-related betting or concentrated trading.

Kalshi users found responsible for threats or abuse against athletes could lose their accounts permanently under a partnership with Signify Group, according to Kalshi News. The initiative addresses online harassment connected to the platform’s sports markets.

The partnership combines monitoring through Signify Group’s Threat Matrix, participation in the Bad Actor Program with Integrity Compliance 360, Inc. (IC360), and a new exchange rule that expressly bans abuse and threats associated with trading.

How monitoring connects to enforcement

Threat Matrix combines AI detection with specialist human intelligence to identify harmful posts on major social platforms. According to Kalshi News, the service works across more than 100 languages and distinguishes 32 categories of threats and abuse.

The announcement’s overview lists athletes and coaches across the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, USTA, WTA, and ATP Tour as covered by the monitoring. Its accompanying FAQ gives a narrower list—NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and ATP Tour—and also identifies sports personnel as covered.

Under the Bad Actor Program, established jointly by Signify Group and IC360, Signify investigates serious abuse. Participating platforms then use IC360 technology to check whether the people identified have accounts, providing a basis for enforcement under their rules.

Kalshi News says confirmed misconduct can result in sanctions, potentially including permanent account closure. Evidence may also be passed to sports organizations or referred to law enforcement when appropriate.

What it means for prediction markets

• Account access is at stake: Abuse or threats connected to trading can carry consequences beyond the social platform where the conduct occurs.
• Identification supports enforcement: The partnership links investigations of online misconduct with checks for accounts on participating platforms.
• Impact remains unquantified: The supplied announcement provides no enforcement totals or evidence of effects on trading activity or market prices.