Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 5:39 PM ET

Blockchain.com has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for licenses to offer prediction markets and cryptocurrency derivatives in the U.S., according to SCCG Management. The Dallas-based cryptocurrency brokerage is seeking both Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and Designated Contract Market (DCM) licenses; neither application guarantees approval or a U.S. launch.

A domestic route for existing products

According to SCCG Management, the proposed licenses would allow Blockchain.com to handle derivatives trades, hold customer funds and clear transactions for retail and institutional participants. The CFTC oversees yes/no exchanges and treats event contracts as swaps.

Blockchain.com already offers perpetual futures and event contracts in eligible international markets. The applications follow earlier announcements covering self-custodied prediction markets and perpetual futures trading, and represent a step toward making similar products and regulated trading available directly to U.S. customers through the Blockchain.com app.

Scale meets an uncertain approval process

The privately held company operates in more than 70 countries. SCCG Management reports that it has cleared more than $1.1 trillion in cryptocurrency transactions and maintains over 95 million wallets across more than 44 million confirmed accounts. It is also reportedly pursuing a $500 million initial public offering that could put its valuation at $4 billion to $6 billion.

If approved, Blockchain.com would join Coinbase Global, Crypto.com, Gemini and Robinhood Markets among brokers with substantial digital-currency businesses that also facilitate event contracts. SCCG Management describes the prediction-market sector as dominated by a single major operator, making the potential arrival of another large platform a competitive development rather than an established shift in market share.

The timing and result of the CFTC review remain uncertain. For Blockchain.com, the applications outline a path from international product availability to regulated U.S. access, but its existing customer base and transaction volume do not establish whether that expansion will proceed.

What it means for prediction markets

• Applications are not approvals: The filing is a regulatory milestone, not confirmation that U.S. trading is available or that a launch date has been set.
• Potential competition has meaningful scale: Blockchain.com’s international reach and account base could matter if it receives approval, but its domestic market position remains unproven.
• The scope extends beyond event contracts: The applications also cover cryptocurrency derivatives, placing prediction markets within a broader U.S. trading expansion.

Kalshi traders put the probability of President Trump publicly criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh before April 2027 at 48%, according to Kalshi News’ October 14, 2026 update. The price places that prospect close to even odds.

The standalone political contract appeared alongside the exchange’s October interest-rate decision market in its post-CPI coverage. The two markets address different outcomes: Trump’s public comments about Warsh and the Fed’s next policy move.

Inflation reshapes the policy backdrop

According to Kalshi News, September 2026 consumer prices increased 0.6%, exceeding expectations and posting the biggest monthly rise in five months. Gasoline prices climbed 9.1%, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase.

Following the inflation report, Kalshi’s October decision market assigned 33% odds to a 25-basis-point rate increase, while the probability of unchanged rates stood at 66%. The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled policy meeting is October 27-28, 2026.

Separate outcomes, different timelines

The Trump-Warsh contract extends beyond that October meeting, with its window running until before April 2027. Its appearance in the same update provides a political counterpart to the monetary-policy pricing, but does not establish that either outcome depends on the other.

The supplied report gives no earlier price for the criticism contract or detailed criteria for what would qualify as public criticism. The 48% reading therefore provides a snapshot, rather than evidence of how that market moved after the inflation release.

What it means for prediction markets

• Keep the outcomes distinct: The criticism contract concerns Trump’s public remarks, not whether the Fed raises rates.
• Compare deadlines carefully: The October policy market covers the upcoming decision; the political contract runs until before April 2027.
• Avoid inferring a shared move: The update reports higher rate-hike expectations, but provides no comparable price history for the Trump-Warsh contract.