Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 2:24 PM ET

Kalshi traders have pushed the probability of Aaron Boone losing his job as New York Yankees manager to 52%, from 27% in five days, according to Sports Illustrated. The move comes amid scrutiny of Boone and general manager Brian Cashman while the MLB Playoffs continue.

The contract’s timing matters: Sports Illustrated reports that Kalshi resolves the market according to whether Boone remains Yankees manager by December 1. The outlet also lists a potential $6.87 profit on a successful $10 trade backing his firing by that deadline.

Market pricing diverges from retention reports

The rising probability contrasts with reporting suggesting Boone could remain through the 2027 season. According to Sports Illustrated, Yankees writer Brendan Kuty considers an offseason managerial change unlikely, citing Cashman’s public support Wednesday and Boone entering the final year of a two-year contract extension.

Sports Illustrated also cites MLB.com writer Bryan Hoch as indicating that owner Hal Steinbrenner does not intend to replace Boone this offseason. Hoch’s account suggests Steinbrenner would allow the contract to run through the 2027 season before deciding what comes next.

Postseason record keeps Boone under scrutiny

Boone has taken the Yankees to the playoffs in eight of his nine years and reached one World Series, according to Sports Illustrated. But the championship comparison remains unfavorable: Joe Girardi and Joe Torre each won titles within their first eight seasons. The Yankees’ last World Series victory came in 2009, a 17-year drought.

Since Boone’s hiring in 2018, the Yankees have posted an 18-5 playoff record against lower-seeded opponents and a 9-25 record against higher-seeded teams, Sports Illustrated reports. Their only series advancement against a higher seed came in 2020 against the Cleveland Guardians. The outlet argues that retaining Boone for 2027 without another extension would leave the club greater flexibility to replace him during that season.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline is decisive. A departure during the 2027 season is a different outcome from Boone being out by December 1.
• Pricing and reporting point in different directions. The 52% market reading sits alongside accounts suggesting Yankees leadership favors keeping Boone.
• A probability shift is not a personnel announcement. The supplied reporting describes a market move, not a confirmed decision to dismiss him.

StarkWare opened OffMarket to the public on Oct. 14, adding a privacy-focused way to trade Polymarket markets, according to The Block. The public launch follows a period of limited access that began in August.

Privacy layered onto Polymarket

OffMarket uses Starknet privacy technology for trading on Polymarket, according to The Block. The offering adds privacy to activity in those markets rather than introducing a separate set of prediction markets.

The available summary describes the service as allowing trading without linking positions, but cuts off before specifying what that link would otherwise identify. The source article’s full text was unavailable, leaving the precise scope of that protection unclear.

From limited access to public launch

The Oct. 14 opening moves OffMarket beyond its limited-access phase. The supplied material does not include participation figures or details on how the public rollout is being implemented.

For prediction-market readers, the reported development concerns how users access and trade Polymarket markets. The available information does not establish whether the launch changes market liquidity, pricing or participation.

What it means for prediction markets

• A new privacy-focused route: OffMarket brings Starknet privacy technology to trading on Polymarket, according to The Block.
• Broader availability: Public access began on Oct. 14, following limited access since August.
• Impact remains unmeasured: The supplied material provides no figures on adoption or market effects, and does not fully explain the privacy protection.