Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 12:24 PM ET

September’s stronger-than-expected core consumer price index prompted traders to raise expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase. Following the release, fed funds futures priced the probability of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 meeting at about 44%, roughly twice the pre-release level, according to Investor’s Business Daily.

October remains uncertain

The repricing left an October increase below a 50% probability, even as the inflation report strengthened expectations for tighter policy. September core prices rose more than expected, according to Investor’s Business Daily.

The futures outlook was considerably firmer further out: the probability of a hike by the Dec. 9 meeting reached 96.5%. That distinction matters—the December figure concerns an increase by that meeting, rather than necessarily an increase at that meeting.

Stocks and yields react

The S&P 500 moved lower after the CPI release, while Treasury yields rose, according to Investor’s Business Daily. The 2-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks expectations for Fed policy, climbed 12.7 basis points.

Together, those moves reflected a shift in the expected policy path after the inflation surprise. The October probability still indicated substantial uncertainty about the timing of a hike, despite the much higher probability assigned to an increase by December.

What it means for prediction markets

• Timing is the key distinction: About 44% odds for a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 and 96.5% odds of a hike by Dec. 9 refer to different outcomes.
• Futures provide a comparison point: These are probabilities derived from fed funds futures, not reported prediction-market contract prices.
• Resolution wording matters: A contract on a hike at a particular meeting should not be treated as equivalent to one covering any hike by a deadline.

Kalshi’s market on the winner of the Los Angeles mayoral election has recorded $96.9M traded, making it the platform’s biggest single election market, according to bonus.com.

The snapshot, published Oct 14, 2026 · 12:24 PM ET, puts a local election at the center of the latest trading-volume update. The available material does not include candidate prices or implied probabilities.

Volume leads a quiet update

The accompanying summary describes the preceding 15 minutes as quiet, with no significant new platform headline. The volume snapshot therefore leads the update as a metrics story, rather than a report of a new election development.

The bonus.com page text was unavailable. Beyond the headline figure and ranking, the supplied material provides no breakdown of trading activity, comparison with other individual election markets, or period over which the volume accumulated.

What it means for prediction markets

• Activity, not an outcome forecast: The $96.9M figure measures reported trading volume; it does not identify a favored candidate.
• A narrowly defined ranking: The claim concerns Kalshi’s biggest single election market, not the largest market across all platforms or categories.
• Limited trading context: Without prices, spreads or order-book data, the snapshot does not establish how expectations have changed or how much liquidity is currently available.