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Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 11:54 AM ET

2 stories in this edition: CS2 fee gap is under half a cent a contract: $1.20 on Polymarket International vs. $1.67-$1.68 on Polymarket US and Kalshi for 100 contracts at 60c · 49ers stretch clear in the NFC West: 67% on Kalshi, 66% on Polymarket, up 25 points in a week

CS2 fee gap is under half a cent a contract: $1.20 on Polymarket International vs. $1.67-$1.68 on Polymarket US and Kalshi for 100 contracts at 60c

A venue comparison puts Polymarket International's CS2 coefficient at 0.05, Polymarket US takers at 0.0695 since Oct. 1 with a maker rebate, and Kalshi takers at 0.07…

Polymarket International has the lowest CS2 taker fees among three venues examined by SkinBetHub, but the difference is less than half a cent per contract. For 100 contracts priced at 60¢, the comparison puts fees at $1.20 on Polymarket International, $1.67 on Polymarket US and $1.68 on Kalshi.

The underlying position costs $60 before fees and pays $100 if it wins. According to SkinBetHub, the fee difference is smaller than the bid-ask spread in most CS2 markets, making execution prices a potentially larger source of cost than the published fee schedule.

Similar formulas, different incentives

All three venues calculate taker fees using a coefficient multiplied by the number of contracts, the contract price in dollars and one minus that price. Polymarket International applies a 0.05 coefficient to CS2, classified as sports. Polymarket US has charged takers at a coefficient of 0.0695 since October 1, 2026, while Kalshi uses 0.07 and rounds fees upward to the next cent, according to SkinBetHub.

Maker treatment also differs. Polymarket International charges makers nothing and offers participation in a rebate pool; Kalshi’s CS2 contracts have no maker fee at the time of the comparison. Polymarket US pays makers a rebate calculated with a 0.0125 coefficient, producing $0.30 for the example above. Its takers exceeding $250,000 in monthly volume receive partial fee rebates. Kalshi’s rounding matters particularly for small orders: one contract at 60¢ incurs $0.02 rather than the unrounded $0.0168.

Settlement and access complicate the comparison

Cancellation rules create a larger potential difference than fees. According to SkinBetHub, Polymarket International pays $0.50 per share when a match is canceled, tied, forfeited before play or not rescheduled within 14 days. Kalshi uses an exchange-set last fair price for cancellations or pre-play forfeits, and for postponements when play does not begin within 48 hours of the original start. Polymarket US says sports contracts without an official result settle at the last fair market price, rather than simply the last trade.

Availability also limits the choice. Polymarket International excludes US users, while Polymarket US serves US residents; Kalshi accepts US residents and users in many other countries, subject to restrictions. SkinBetHub reports that state challenges to sports event contracts, including esports, remain unresolved amid conflicting federal appeals court decisions. The outlet says its comparison draws on platform documentation and discloses affiliate relationships with both Kalshi and Polymarket.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Execution can outweigh fees: The quoted 100-contract trade produces a fee advantage of $0.47–$0.48 for Polymarket International, less than half a cent per contract.
  • Order type and size matter: Maker rebates, volume-based refunds and Kalshi’s upward rounding can change the effective cost from the headline taker comparison.
  • Similar contracts can carry different settlement exposure: A favorite purchased at 80¢ on Polymarket International would pay only 50¢ if the match is canceled under its stated rules.
  • Access is part of the comparison: Country restrictions and continuing US state disputes mean the three venues are not interchangeable for every participant.
  1. Skinbethub (skinbethub.com)https://www.skinbethub.com/blog/kalshi-vs-polymarket-cs2

49ers stretch clear in the NFC West: 67% on Kalshi, 66% on Polymarket, up 25 points in a week

Quiet quarter-hour — no significant new platform headline in the last 15 minutes, so this fresh sports snapshot leads, in a sports category different from the previous…

The San Francisco 49ers’ chances of winning the NFC West stand at 67% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket in the latest supplied snapshot, with a weekly increase of 25 percentage points. Those readings put San Francisco clearly ahead and show close agreement between the two venues.

According to iPredicta, the underlying division-market readings were taken on 14 October 2026 at 07:33 UTC. Its weekly change measures the movement in the average of the two platforms’ prices since 7 October 2026—not a separate 25-point increase on each exchange.

A different picture from September

The competitive backdrop includes the LA Rams, who entered the season as Super Bowl LXI favourites before losing their opening game in Australia to the 49ers, according to iPredicta. The Seattle Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl champions, while the Arizona Cardinals are among the league’s least-favoured division contenders.

Earlier pricing showed a much tighter contest. On 13 September, iPredicta recorded Kalshi bid-and-ask quotes of 35 to 36 for the 49ers, 33 to 34 for the Seahawks and 33 to 34 for the Rams. On Polymarket, San Francisco’s quote ranged from a bid of 23 to an ask of 35—a twelve-point spread that made its midpoint less useful as an indication of an executable price.

Reading the snapshot carefully

For the 14 October 2026 reading, iPredicta reported that Polymarket’s NFC West probabilities totalled 102.6%, with $49,544 traded over the market’s life. That total matters when comparing individual contract prices: the displayed probabilities do not form a book adding neatly to 100%.

The source also retains commentary describing all three leading NFC West teams as having at least a 30% chance on Kalshi, which does not align with the supplied headline snapshot. The current figures and their timestamp therefore warrant more weight than that older description. The material does not identify a specific catalyst for the latest weekly move.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Agreement is strong: Kalshi’s 67% and Polymarket’s 66% readings present a consistent view of San Francisco as the favourite.
  • The weekly move is an average: The reported 25-percentage-point increase uses prices across both venues, measured from 7 October 2026.
  • Price quality still matters: September’s wide Polymarket spread illustrates why midpoint probabilities should be distinguished from available buying and selling prices; no current spread is supplied.
  • Check the timing: The snapshot supports a clear 49ers lead, but parts of the accompanying source commentary describe an earlier, closer race.
  1. Ipredicta (ipredicta.co)https://ipredicta.co/insights/nfl-division-winners-2026/

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