Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 5:54 PM ET

Reported volume moves higher

Prediction-market trading volume across nine exchanges reached $3.5B in DeFi Rate’s 5:23 PM ET snapshot on Oct 13, 2026, according to the outlet’s summary.

The reported total was up from $3.3B at the 3:30 PM ET reading. Both figures describe activity over the preceding 24 hours, rather than trading solely between the two snapshots.

The aggregate offers a cross-venue view, but the supplied material does not break out individual exchanges’ contributions. It therefore does not establish whether the increase was broadly distributed or concentrated on particular platforms.

DeFi Rate’s summary also references an Oct. 28 Fed hike market, but the excerpt ends before explaining the comparison. It provides no corresponding probability or complete description of the reported alignment.

What it means for prediction markets

• Activity increased on the reported measure: The later snapshot showed $3.5B in 24-hour volume across nine exchanges, versus $3.3B earlier.
• Volume is not a directional signal: The supplied figures do not show which outcomes attracted trading or whether prices moved alongside activity.
• The Fed reference remains incomplete: The available excerpt does not support a conclusion about the Oct. 28 hike probability or price agreement across venues.

Tema is preparing an exchange-traded fund that would allocate 15% of its portfolio to Kalshi and Polymarket, offering exposure to prediction-market operators rather than their event contracts. According to The Cryptonomist, which cites ETF analyst Eric Balchunas’s post on X, the planned fund would hold stakes in the two privately owned companies.

Access to the operators

Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket is publicly traded, limiting direct access for everyday investors. Tema’s proposed structure would make those private-company investments available through an exchange-traded vehicle, without requiring either business to complete an IPO.

The Cryptonomist reports that Tema would use the portion of a thematic ETF reserved for less-liquid investments to accommodate those holdings. The 15% allocation covers Kalshi and Polymarket together; it is not a separate allocation to each platform.

The fund’s fee is set at 75 basis points, according to the outlet. That places its pricing alongside specialized thematic ETFs and makes demand for access to these otherwise difficult-to-buy businesses a central test of the product.

Event contracts remain outside the portfolio

The ETF would not buy contracts linked to elections, sports results or economic releases. The Cryptonomist attributes that exclusion to an ongoing SEC review of event contracts, with Tema choosing company ownership rather than direct participation in the markets those companies operate.

That distinction would not eliminate regulatory exposure. A decision concerning event contracts would not necessarily require changes to the ETF’s structure, but regulatory developments affecting Kalshi or Polymarket as businesses could still influence the fund’s valuation and marketing, the outlet reports.

What it means for prediction markets

• Company exposure is not outcome exposure. The planned ETF would provide a stake in platform businesses, not positions on particular events.
• Private holdings are central to the design. The combined 15% allocation would connect a publicly traded fund with less-liquid investments in Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Inflows would test the investment theme. Demand after trading begins would help show whether interest in prediction markets extends to owning their operators.
• Regulation remains a watchpoint. Excluding event contracts separates the fund from direct contract holdings, but not from regulatory developments affecting the underlying companies.