Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 4:24 PM ET

Daily temperature contracts for the same city can produce different settlement results on Kalshi and Polymarket—even when their dates and temperature brackets match. According to a Convex Lake review of 102 resolved city-days across NYC, Chicago, and Miami, differences in data providers and weather stations make those contracts less interchangeable than their labels suggest.

Different sources, different stations

Kalshi’s daily high and low temperature series uses the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report, according to Convex Lake. NWS meteorologists curate and quality-control that government report before its release the following morning. Polymarket’s settlement sources vary by city, with some contracts using Wunderground and others relying directly on NOAA or weather.gov.

Wunderground, owned by The Weather Company, operates a commercial reporting pipeline separate from NWS, including when both draw observations from the same airport. NYC adds another distinction: Kalshi uses Central Park, while Polymarket uses LaGuardia Airport. Chicago uses the same station but different commercial and government reporting sources.

Miami was the only city in the review where both platforms sourced data directly from the NOAA/NWS family for the same station. Even there, the products differ: Kalshi uses the curated daily report, while Polymarket uses an hourly timeseries.

Small gaps can change the winning bracket

Convex Lake found the strongest settlement agreement in Miami, followed by Chicago, with NYC agreeing least often. In NYC, the platforms’ actual settlement values matched on fewer than a third of the days examined. Across the review, the reported mean temperature gap was 0.81°F, with a maximum difference of 5°F. Kalshi recorded the warmer value in 31 of 54 disagreements, which Convex Lake said did not establish a reliable directional bias.

Those relatively small differences can still determine a contract’s outcome. A 1–2°F difference between LaGuardia and Central Park can move a reading across a temperature-bracket boundary. The review is limited to 102 city-days across three cities, rather than providing broad statistical proof; Convex Lake also noted that both platforms have previously changed resolution sources for specific markets.

What it means for prediction markets

• City labels do not establish equivalence. The named station, reporting provider and data product determine whether two contracts measure the same event.
• Bracket boundaries amplify modest differences. Closely spaced settlement readings can produce different winning contracts even when the underlying weather is similar.
• Price gaps are not necessarily mechanical arbitrage. Different resolution inputs and the absence of a reliable directional bias complicate cross-platform comparisons.
• Contract-specific rules matter. Historical patterns may not apply to other cities or to markets whose settlement sources have changed.

Kalshi files for a long-dated oil contract

Kalshi has filed a proposal for a perpetual-style WTI oil contract with expiry occurring only every 10 years, according to Rigzone.

The proposed product would pair an oil-market reference with an unusually long contract life. Although described as perpetual-style, it would still have a scheduled expiry rather than remain open indefinitely.

The development is a filing, not a confirmed launch. The available material does not establish whether the proposed contract has been approved or when trading might begin.

Rigzone’s full report was unavailable for review. Details about settlement, pricing and other contract mechanics therefore could not be established from the supplied material.

What it means for prediction markets

• Product status matters: The filing signals a proposed addition to Kalshi’s offering, but does not establish availability for traders.
• Expiry remains relevant: A 10-year expiration cycle is distinct from a genuinely non-expiring contract.
• Mechanics are still an information gap: Without the contract specifications, readers cannot assess how its oil exposure or settlement would work.