Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 12:24 PM ET

Brown (D) stood at 60¢ against Husted (R) at 41¢ on the live Ohio Senate prediction-market board as of Oct 13, 2026, at 12:24 PM ET. Brown’s headline reading of 60% was down 3 points over seven days.

Ohio’s market snapshot

The prices still place Brown ahead of Husted, despite the decline in Brown’s reading over the past week. The supplied snapshot does not include Husted’s earlier price, so it does not establish how much his contract moved during that period.

According to defirate.com, its Senate comparison board covers all 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2026 across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini and OG. The site allows readers to search by state or candidate, monitor daily price changes and examine implications for Senate control.

The supplied defirate.com excerpt also displays a separate GOP buy price of 43¢, with a stated payout of $232 on a $100 purchase at the ask if correct, before fees. The excerpt does not identify that quote as belonging to Ohio, so it should not be substituted for Husted’s 41¢ reading.

What it means for prediction markets

• Brown remains the higher-priced candidate in the supplied Ohio snapshot, but his reading has fallen 3 points in seven days.
• The 60¢ and 41¢ quotes total 101¢. Readers should distinguish displayed contract prices from a normalized probability split.
• The material does not identify which venue supplied the Ohio quotes or explain the weekly decline, limiting conclusions about the move’s cause.

Ossoff commands a substantial market advantage

Jon Ossoff is priced as the overwhelming favorite to defeat Mike Collins in Georgia’s Senate race, according to Action Network. Its reported prices put Ossoff at 95c on Polymarket and 96.3c on Kalshi, with the latter up 0.9 points.

Collins, meanwhile, stands at 5c on Polymarket. The figures show both platforms strongly favoring Ossoff, even as the story’s headline describes polling that points to a competitive contest.

The polling comparison remains incomplete

The supplied material does not include poll results, fieldwork dates or margins of error for the Georgia race. That limits any assessment of how sharply the market pricing differs from the electoral picture captured by surveys.

The distinction matters: confidence in a candidate winning is not the same as an expectation of a wide vote margin. The reported prices establish a strong market preference for Ossoff, but the available material does not explain why traders assign Collins so little chance.

What it means for prediction markets

• Strong agreement across platforms: Action Network’s reported Ossoff prices of 95c on Polymarket and 96.3c on Kalshi both reflect an overwhelming favorite.
• Movement favors Ossoff: Kalshi’s reported 0.9-point increase reinforces that positioning, although the summary does not specify the comparison period.
• The polling gap needs evidence: Without the underlying surveys, the apparent tension between a competitive race and highly confident market pricing cannot be quantified.

Bitcoin trading volume on Polymarket US rose from about $453,000 to $50.7 million in the week of Sept. 21-27, according to DeFi Rate. Nearly all of that activity came from 15-minute and hourly markets, although combination contracts—not Bitcoin—accounted for most of the platform’s overall expansion.

Across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International, weekly volume totaled approximately $19.46 billion, up 3.9% from $18.72 billion. Polymarket US grew 21% to $2.83 billion, lifting its share of the three-venue total from 12.5% to 14.6%.

Short-duration Bitcoin markets gain ground

Fifteen-minute Bitcoin contracts generated about $45.7 million, roughly 90% of the platform’s Bitcoin volume. That trading was distributed across hundreds of short windows rather than concentrated in individual markets large enough to rival the leading NFL contracts. Despite its sharp increase, Bitcoin represented only 1.8% of Polymarket US volume.

Football occupied all 10 positions on the platform’s individual-market leaderboard, led by Colts-Chiefs at $27.67 million, Giants-Rams at $23.23 million and Falcons-Packers at $16 million. Yet those 10 markets together contributed just 4.4% of weekly volume, according to DeFi Rate.

Combinations supply most of the growth

Combination-contract volume rose 44.4%, from $1.06 billion to $1.53 billion, and its share of Polymarket US trading increased from 45.4% to 54.1%. These contracts supplied $471.2 million of the platform’s $491.6 million weekly increase, or 95.9%; everything else added only about $20 million. DeFi Rate said the available data did not support a reliable allocation of combinations among NFL, college football, baseball and mixed-sport contracts.

The concentration was even greater on Sept. 27. Polymarket US volume reached $759.8 million, compared with $592.2 million the previous Sunday, while combinations increased from $298.6 million to $468.8 million. Their $170.2 million gain exceeded the platform’s $167.6 million increase, meaning trading outside combinations declined slightly.

Kalshi retains the lead

Kalshi’s weekly volume increased 2.6% to a record $15.66 billion, representing 80.5% of the tracked total. Sunday set a daily record of $3.24 billion, while Friday through Sunday contributed approximately $8.60 billion, or 54.9% of the week. Nevertheless, its $395.4 million weekly increase was smaller than Polymarket US’s gain.

Polymarket International moved in the opposite direction: volume fell 13.5%, from roughly $1.11 billion to $964.1 million, and its share slipped from roughly 6% to 5%. According to DeFi Rate, the category-level data were insufficient to identify what drove that decline.

What it means for prediction markets

• Product mix matters: Combinations generated 95.9% of Polymarket US’s weekly growth, so the headline increase does not indicate comparable expansion across its other markets.
• Bitcoin activity is fragmented: The category’s jump largely reflects trading across short-duration contracts, not a single large Bitcoin market.
• Leaderboards offer an incomplete picture: Football dominated the largest individual markets, while combinations accounted for most platform volume.
• Venue trends diverged: Polymarket US gained share as International contracted, but Kalshi remained the largest venue by a wide margin.