Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 8:24 AM ET

Spain’s 0-0 draw with Cape Verde dealt a blow to a Polymarket trade approaching $1M, according to gamblerss.com. The result put a football wager at the center of the latest prediction-market update.

A large trade meets a scoreless result

The notable figure is the trade’s near-$1M size. The available material does not establish the precise amount lost, so that figure should not be treated as a confirmed loss.

The update, published Oct 13, 2026 at 8:24 AM ET, highlighted the trade after a quiet 15-minute period without a significant new headline. It also moved into a different category from the previous three editions.

The gamblerss.com article text was unavailable. Beyond the score and the approximate trade size identified in the headline, the supplied material does not specify the position’s entry price, contract terms or settlement details.

What it means for prediction markets

• Trade size is not the same as realized loss. The near-$1M figure identifies the scale of the position, but the available reporting does not provide a verified loss calculation.
• Contract details remain essential. The 0-0 result is clear; assessing the position’s exact outcome requires the market’s terms and the trader’s entry price.

A new nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 60% of U.S. adults oppose betting on election results, while 13% support it, according to a Gambling Insider report on the survey.

The findings, reported on Oct 13, 2026, show a substantial gap between opposition and support for election wagering. For prediction-market readers, they offer a measure of public attitudes toward one category of event-based betting.

Opposition extends beyond elections

The survey also found greater opposition to markets involving military action than to election betting, according to the report. The supplied summary does not give a percentage for opposition to military-action markets.

The full source text was unavailable. The material provided does not include the survey’s sample size, fieldwork dates, margin of error or question wording, limiting how closely the results can be assessed.

What it means for prediction markets

• Election betting faces unfavorable public sentiment: Opposition stood at 60%, compared with 13% support. Those figures measure attitudes, not the likelihood of a regulatory or legislative outcome.
• Market categories matter: Higher opposition to military-action markets suggests public acceptance differs depending on the event being traded.
• Important context is missing: Without the full survey details, the supplied findings cannot establish changes in sentiment over time or differences among demographic groups.

Polymarket US will revise its maker and taker rebate structure from Oct. 19, according to Gambling Insider. The changes introduce volume-based tiers for maker rebates and taker rebates reaching 30% above $50M in monthly volume.

Rebate changes

Maker rebates will move to a tiered system linked to trading volume. The available summary does not specify the volume thresholds or rebate rates for individual maker tiers.

On the taker side, the stated 30% rebate applies above $50M in monthly volume. The summary does not detail the rates available below that threshold.

Details remain limited

The changes were reported on Oct. 13, 2026, ahead of the Oct. 19 start date. The source page text was unavailable, leaving no further details on eligibility, calculation methods or how the revised rebates compare with the existing schedule.

What it means for prediction markets

• Maker incentives will depend on volume tiers. The full schedule is needed to assess how the changes affect participants at different trading volumes.
• The highest stated taker rebate has a substantial threshold. The available summary places the 30% rate above $50M in monthly volume.
• The effect on market activity remains uncertain. The information provided does not establish whether the changes will increase liquidity or trading volume.