Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 6:54 AM ET

The busiest contracts look beyond November

With the 2026 midterms four weeks away, Kalshi’s election trading volumes are drawing attention to the next presidential cycle. Three of its four largest election markets by volume concern 2028, according to InGame reporting summarized by SCCG Management.

The Democratic presidential nomination market leads with $232 million traded across 48 options. Jon Ossoff is priced at 17%, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14% and Gavin Newsom at 13%. The choices also include celebrity outsiders.

The market for the 2028 presidential winner has attracted just over $71 million, with JD Vance at 19% and Ossoff at 12%. Approximately $68 million has traded on the Republican nomination, where Vance stands at 44% and Marco Rubio at 17%.

Democrats favored for congressional control

The midterm picture has nevertheless moved toward Democrats. According to the report, their Senate-control pricing strengthened from the prior week to 65 cents on PredictIt, 66% on Robinhood, and 65% on both Polymarket and Kalshi. House-control readings put Democrats at 89–90% across those platforms. Kalshi’s seat-range contracts suggest roughly a 75% chance that Democrats win at least a 228-207 advantage.

Maine offers a closer contest. Democrat Troy Jackson leads incumbent Susan Collins 57-43 on Kalshi, with similar margins elsewhere. Recent polling from AARP, Marist and CBS News/YouGov points to a tighter race, including one survey showing both candidates at 50%.

Other races command substantial volume

California contests also account for sizeable trading. The Los Angeles mayoral market has recorded $99 million, with Nithya Raman ahead of Karen Bass 59%-40%. The California gubernatorial market has drawn $54 million and prices Xavier Becerra at 96%. Separately, markets put the likelihood of the Sunshine Protection Act passing by year-end at roughly 10%.

SCCG interprets the presidential-market activity as evidence that traders are using Kalshi for political positioning well beyond the immediate election. Its account was generated by an automated editorial system from published reporting, with SCCG Management retaining editorial responsibility.

What it means for prediction markets

• Volume and probability convey different information. The $232 million Democratic nomination market leads in trading activity, but its highest-priced candidate, Ossoff, is at just 17%.
• Long-dated contracts are attracting substantial participation. The prominence of 2028 markets contrasts with the proximity of the 2026 midterms; accumulated volume alone does not establish where the newest trades are going.
• Congressional pricing distinguishes the two chambers. Democrats’ 89–90% House readings are substantially higher than their Senate readings of 65 cents on PredictIt and 65–66% elsewhere.
• Maine remains a competitive state-level signal. Jackson’s market lead sits alongside polling that includes a 50%-50% tie, rather than an unequivocal advantage.

Purdy joins Allen at the top

Brock Purdy has drawn level with Josh Allen at the head of Polymarket’s NFL MVP market, according to SI’s prediction-markets board. The update, published Oct 13, 2026, at 6:54 AM ET, places the two players jointly in the lead.

The supplied summary does not include either player’s implied probability or the size of Purdy’s move. It therefore establishes a tie at the top without showing how far the pair stand ahead of other contenders.

Trade expectations and the NBA board

SI’s summary also says Kalshi leans toward Marvin Harrison Jr. being traded this season. No contract price or further detail is provided, limiting any assessment of the strength of that expectation.

Separately, the supplied si.com archive entry concerns Kalshi’s NBA Championship market, where SI reports that the 76ers continue to hold a clear lead over the Knicks in the East. That entry provides no additional support or pricing detail for the NFL developments described in the summary.

What it means for prediction markets

• MVP leadership is shared: Purdy and Allen are tied atop Polymarket’s market, according to SI, but the available material does not quantify their chances.
• The trade signal is unquantified: Kalshi’s reported lean toward a Marvin Harrison Jr. trade indicates direction, not a disclosed level of conviction.
• Source coverage is limited: The supplied archive entry addresses the NBA rather than the NFL, leaving the MVP and trade updates dependent on the brief summary.