Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 3:54 AM ET

Michigan Democratic odds move lower

The Democratic side of the Michigan Senate market fell from 72% to 67% over seven days, according to the latest DeFi Rate snapshot cited in the Oct 13, 2026 · 3:54 AM ET update.

The 67% reading was also one percentage point below the earlier overnight level. That puts the latest snapshot below both comparison points, extending the decline described in the update.

DeFi Rate’s summary labels the seven-day move as a six-point drop. However, the stated endpoints—72% and 67%—represent a five-percentage-point decline. The available material does not explain that discrepancy.

The summary also begins to reference Senate control but provides no corresponding price or completed comparison. With the source page text unavailable, the evidence supports a Michigan-specific account rather than a broader assessment of midterm market movements.

What it means for prediction markets

• Michigan has repriced lower: The Democratic side remains above 50% at 67%, despite declines from both the week-earlier and overnight readings.
• The weekly change needs clarification: The reported six-point decline does not match the five-point difference between the supplied endpoints.
• Broader implications remain unconfirmed: No usable Senate-control figures are provided, limiting comparisons between the Michigan race and the chamber-wide market.

DeFi Rate’s volume tracker puts trading across prediction-market venues at about $96.6B over Sep. 13–Oct. 12, with Kalshi accounting for about $73.1B, or about 76%.

Kalshi leads the 30-day tally

The figures place Kalshi at the center of the tracked market’s activity for the period. Its reported volume exceeded that of all other covered venues combined.

Polymarket US ranked second, according to DeFi Rate. The available summary does not provide its trading volume or percentage share, leaving the size of the gap beyond Kalshi’s lead unspecified.

Scope of the figures

The snapshot was published on Oct. 13, 2026, at 3:54 AM ET. It describes a 30-day trading-volume window, rather than a single day’s activity.

The underlying page text was unavailable. The supplied material therefore does not establish the tracker’s methodology, the full list of covered venues or how volume was distributed among individual contracts.

What it means for prediction markets

• Venue concentration: Kalshi’s roughly 76% share indicates that most reported trading in this window occurred on one platform.
• Ranking, not a complete comparison: Polymarket US held second place, but the available figures do not quantify its share.
• Volume is not contract-level liquidity: These aggregate totals do not establish market depth or execution conditions for any particular event.