Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 2:54 AM ET

Sunday leads the recent trading window

Prediction-market trading reached $5.7B on Sunday, Oct. 11, making it the busiest day in the last 60 days, according to DeFi Rate’s tracker. The daily peak came alongside higher weekly and monthly volume.

For the week of Oct. 5, the tracker recorded $25.0B in volume, up 4% week-on-week. September volume totaled $79.6B, a 56% increase, although the supplied summary does not identify the comparison period.

The measurement basis matters: according to DeFi Rate, contracts are counted at their $1 face value. That measure is distinct from the dollars participants actually pay to trade them.

The supplied tracker excerpt separately lists $24.8B in dollars actually paid and $3.4B over the last 24 hours. It does not specify the period covered by the $24.8B figure, limiting direct comparisons with the daily, weekly and monthly totals.

What it means for prediction markets

• The record has a defined scope: Sunday’s $5.7B was the highest daily volume in a 60-day window, not an established all-time high.
• Volume definitions affect interpretation: Face-value turnover should not be treated as equivalent to dollars actually paid.
• Activity is not a directional signal: These aggregate figures show trading scale and growth, but do not establish how probabilities changed in any individual market.

Polymarket drew a larger share of U.S. branded search demand than Kalshi from Jan-Aug, despite Kalshi’s trading lead, according to gamblinginsider.com.

Search interest and trading diverge

Polymarket accounted for 57.8% of branded searches during the period, compared with 35.8% for Kalshi, according to the outlet. Those figures put Polymarket ahead on search attention, rather than trading activity.

The reported contrast separates two measures of competitive standing: which platform attracts branded searches and which leads in trading. Polymarket’s search advantage did not correspond to the trading lead identified for Kalshi.

Limits of the available data

The available summary does not provide trading figures or explain how the search shares were calculated. It therefore offers a narrow comparison of brand attention, not a complete assessment of either platform’s market position.

What it means for prediction markets

• Search leadership is not trading leadership: Polymarket’s 57.8% search share exceeded Kalshi’s 35.8%, while Kalshi held the reported trading lead.
• Conversion remains unclear: The supplied figures do not establish how branded searches translate into trading activity.
• Definitions matter: Without the underlying methodology or trading totals, the comparison cannot show the size of Kalshi’s trading advantage.

Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $200,000 in 2026 have fallen to a record low in prediction markets, according to Crypto Briefing reporting carried by TradingView. Kalshi priced a contract on Bitcoin trading above $200,000 by January 1, 2027, at 2% as of October 2026, while comparable Polymarket odds ranged from less than 1% to 2%.

A distant target

Polymarket’s pricing has declined from around 4%, with trading volume exceeding $74 million across the related contracts. That volume covers the broader group of markets, rather than the $200,000 contract alone.

Bitcoin traded near $82,000 to $84,000 in early October 2026. Reaching $200,000 would therefore require its price to more than double before the end of the year, according to the report.

Expectations narrow across the price ladder

Lower targets command substantially higher probabilities. Contracts on Bitcoin reaching $90,000 imply a 63% chance, while the $100,000 contract is priced at 28%. Markets covering targets from $150,000 to $190,000 carry single-digit probabilities.

The retreat in expectations predates October: September data already put the $200,000 contract at 2%. Crypto Briefing characterized Polymarket’s decline from around 4% as a gradual reduction in expectations for a sharp rally, rather than a panic-driven move.

The contracts cited settle using the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index. That benchmark is the relevant price reference for their outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

• The upside distribution is steeply discounted: Pricing falls from 63% at $90,000 to 28% at $100,000, with much lower probabilities attached to the higher targets.
• The record low is not necessarily a fresh October shift: September’s 2% reading shows that subdued expectations for $200,000 were already established.
• Contract details matter: Kalshi’s stated deadline is January 1, 2027, and the cited contracts use the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index for settlement.
• Volume needs context: The more than $74 million reported on Polymarket spans related contracts; it should not be read as turnover solely on the $200,000 outcome.