Hourly Briefing · Oct 13, 2026 · 2:39 AM ET

Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 2:39 AM ET

2 stories in this edition: Q3 volume hit a record $188B — and retail is getting crushed · NBA has "deal terms on the table" with prediction-market platforms

Q3 volume hit a record $188B — and retail is getting crushed

Prediction-market volume reached $188B in Q3 2026, up nearly 70% quarter-over-quarter and 21x vs. Q3 2025, with Kalshi's sports contracts driving the surge (sports = 40%…

Record activity in Q3

Prediction-market trading volume climbed to a record $188B in Q3 2026, according to zubiqo.com. That represented an increase of nearly 70% quarter-over-quarter.

Volume was also 21x the level recorded in Q3 2025, putting the latest quarter far above the year-earlier period.

Sports drives the surge

According to zubiqo.com, Kalshi’s sports contracts drove the increase. The supplied summary also gives a 40% figure for sports, but cuts off before identifying precisely what that share measures.

The supplied headline characterizes retail participants as suffering, but the available material contains no loss figures or supporting detail. With the source page unavailable, the scale and nature of any retail losses cannot be established from the summary.

What it means for prediction markets

Activity is expanding sharply: The $188B quarterly total and both growth comparisons establish a substantial increase in trading volume, not whether participants were profitable.
Sports is a key driver: Kalshi’s sports contracts are identified as leading the surge, but the incomplete 40% reference limits conclusions about their exact market share.
Retail outcomes remain unverified: The headline’s claim about retail participants is not supported by performance data in the supplied material.

Zubiqo (zubiqo.com)https://zubiqo.com/news/prediction-markets-hit-188b-as-kalshi-sports-betting-overtakes-polymarket-dkzlbc

NBA has "deal terms on the table" with prediction-market platforms

*Front Office Sports* reports the NBA has circulated a proposal to all platforms and an industry executive expects announcements before the season tips off, with sources…

NBA circulates platform proposal

The NBA has sent a proposal to all prediction-market platforms, according to Front Office Sports. The report indicates that deal terms are under discussion, but the available summary does not identify any platform that has reached an agreement with the league.

An industry executive expects announcements before the season tips off, according to Front Office Sports. That expectation is not confirmation of a completed deal or an announcement date.

Terms remain unspecified

The available material does not disclose the proposal’s commercial terms, the scope of any potential arrangements or which platforms might participate. It also does not establish whether the NBA would reach agreements with multiple operators.

For prediction-market readers, the distinction is between a proposal circulated across the industry and a finalized partnership. The reporting points to ongoing talks, while leaving their outcome unresolved.

What it means for prediction markets

Status: The reported proposal signals discussions with platforms, not a confirmed NBA agreement.
Timing: The expectation of announcements before tipoff comes from an industry executive rather than a disclosed league commitment.
Unknowns: Without named participants or published terms, the potential effect on individual platforms cannot be assessed from the available material.

Gamblerss (gamblerss.com)https://gamblerss.com/deal-terms-on-the-table-inside-the-nba-s-prediction-market-talks-68716

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