Research

Hourly Briefing ·

Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 10, 2026 · 7:54 AM ET

3 stories in this edition: Norway moves to block 62 unlicensed sites · Kalshi Research: most top traders never worked in finance · Kalshi probing suspicious trades on Trump's press secretary pick

Norway moves to block 62 unlicensed sites

Norway is moving toward DNS blocking of 62 unlicensed sites, with Kalshi and Polymarket among those affected, according to igamingtoday.com.

Replies due Oct 15

The report identifies an Oct 15 deadline for replies. The blocking initiative therefore presents a near-term regulatory development for prediction-market readers tracking the two platforms.

The material provided describes operators as facing DNS blocking, rather than confirming that restrictions have already taken effect. It does not specify an implementation date.

Limited details available

The full source text was unavailable. Beyond the total of 62 sites, the inclusion of Kalshi and Polymarket, and the reply deadline, the supplied summary provides no details on the operators’ responses or the process that follows.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both platforms face an access issue in Norway: Kalshi and Polymarket are included in the reported DNS-blocking initiative.
  • Oct 15 is the next stated milestone: It is a deadline for replies, not a confirmed date for blocking to begin.
  • The outcome remains unconfirmed: The available material does not establish whether, or when, the proposed restrictions will take effect.

Kalshi Research: most top traders never worked in finance

Kalshi Research’s Oct 2026 study points to a distinction between trading success and a professional finance background: among top profit-and-loss (PnL) accounts, 82% had never worked full-time at an investment bank, hedge fund, PE firm or prop shop, according to a summary published by binance.com.

The finding concerns the accounts with the highest PnL, rather than prediction-market participants as a whole. It therefore describes the backgrounds of a leading group without establishing how common those backgrounds are across the broader market.

What the finding establishes—and leaves open

The employment measure is specific. Never having held a full-time role at those types of firms is not the same as having no financial knowledge or trading experience. The reported figure does not establish what other experience these traders brought to prediction markets.

The supplied summary does not identify the sample size, ranking period or threshold for inclusion among top accounts. It also cuts off before explaining a separate 91% statistic; with the full source text unavailable, that figure cannot be interpreted reliably.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Institutional employment is not a prerequisite in this sample. The 82% finding shows that most top-PnL accounts fell outside the specified full-time finance-employment categories.
  • The result describes backgrounds, not the causes of success. The available material does not establish which skills, strategies or experience explain the accounts’ performance.
  • Scope matters. Without the sampling and ranking details, readers cannot determine how broadly the finding applies or whether it reflects sustained performance.

Kalshi probing suspicious trades on Trump's press secretary pick

Kalshi is investigating trading on its platform tied to the selection of Katie Zacharia as US President Donald Trump's new White House press secretary, according to the Wall Street Journal, as relayed by Devdiscourse.

The Wall Street Journal reported the inquiry on Friday, citing a Kalshi spokesperson. The investigation concerns a series of trades described as suspicious.

What is known—and what remains unclear

The supplied report identifies the appointment at the center of the inquiry but gives no details about the traders, the size of their positions or when the transactions occurred.

It also provides no findings from the investigation or explanation of what prompted scrutiny. The reported inquiry does not, by itself, establish that any trader engaged in misconduct.

What it means for prediction markets

  • An appointment market is under scrutiny: The investigation concerns trading tied specifically to Zacharia's selection as White House press secretary.
  • Key trading details remain unavailable: Without transaction timing, position sizes or information about the accounts involved, the supplied report offers little basis for assessing the suspicious activity.
  • The outcome remains unresolved: The report establishes that Kalshi is investigating, not that it has reached a conclusion about the trades.

Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: original Infiniti Intelligence reports summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them.