Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 8, 2026 · 3:54 PM ET

The NFL is asking courts to allow states to regulate prediction markets as sports gambling, adding its voice to the dispute over whether federal commodities law takes precedence over state betting rules. According to Fox News, the league filed an amicus brief on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, as New Jersey challenges a federal appeals court ruling favorable to Kalshi.

The league wants the Supreme Court to move quickly. Its filing projected billions of dollars in NFL wagers through prediction markets each season and argued that prolonged uncertainty increases risks to consumers and game integrity. An NFL source told Fox News Digital that billions of dollars in such wagers had already been placed this season.

Integrity concerns and a disputed federal response

Before the season began, the NFL told prediction-market operators it objected to contracts involving coaching decisions, officiating decisions, injuries and other outcomes potentially influenced by inside information. In its brief, the league criticized the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for not addressing contracts it had flagged months earlier, including offerings still listed by Kalshi, according to Fox News.

The CFTC disputed that account of its engagement. Brooke Nethercott, the agency’s public affairs director, told Fox News Digital that the NFL had declined a memorandum of understanding intended to facilitate cooperation and information sharing. An unnamed CFTC source also accused the league of seeking influence over its regulator. An NFL source countered that the dispute concerned consumer protection and game integrity, while questioning whether the commission had sufficient staffing and resources to oversee sports betting.

Operators defend federal oversight

Kalshi said the NFL had been unwilling to share data and collaborate, contrasting that position with its partnerships involving MLB, NHL, USTA and others. The company said the CFTC was actively overseeing sports-related contracts and that ongoing rulemaking addressed many of the league’s concerns. Polymarket separately told Fox News Digital that it was using market-surveillance tools and working with the CFTC, SEC and other professional leagues, arguing for a unified federal framework rather than separate state regimes.

The NFL has official online sportsbook agreements but has not partnered with prediction markets, according to Fox News. An unnamed CFTC source nevertheless said senior NFL staff had indicated just weeks earlier that commercial agreements with several operators were close. The jurisdictional dispute also involves different access thresholds: prediction markets admit users 18 and older, while online sportsbooks require users to be 21 and older.

What it means for prediction markets

• Jurisdiction remains the central issue. New Jersey’s challenge concerns whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling regulation; the NFL’s brief supports state oversight.
• Contract design is under scrutiny. The league’s objections specifically target outcomes involving injuries, coaching, officiating and potential inside information—not merely game results.
• Cooperation is contested. The NFL, CFTC and operators offer differing accounts of their integrity efforts, making regulatory coordination a separate issue from commercial partnerships.
• Urgency is not a court timetable. The NFL is pressing for prompt Supreme Court action, but the supplied reporting identifies no date for a decision.

Jump Trading is set to receive small ownership stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket in return for supplying liquidity to their prediction markets, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by Casino.org and republished by GambleRss. The arrangements would connect the proprietary trading firm’s market-making role with equity ownership in both operators.

The terms differ between the platforms. Bloomberg, citing unidentified people familiar with the arrangements, reported that Jump would receive a fixed equity allocation in Kalshi. Its Polymarket stake could increase over time if it meets specified liquidity-capacity objectives. The ownership percentages were not confirmed.

Liquidity and pricing in focus

Professional market makers can support trading in lightly traded event contracts, potentially narrowing spreads and sustaining activity before more participants arrive. Jump competitor Susquehanna International Group has supplied market-making services to prediction-market businesses since 2024, according to Casino.org. Greater participation by outside liquidity providers could also ease concerns about operators’ own trading units taking the other side of retail customers’ positions.

Sports contracts offer a particular test. Casino.org reported that they have been the main source of prediction-market volume growth, but that Kalshi’s NFL contract pricing was consistently less favorable than pricing at DraftKings and FanDuel during the 2025 NFL season. Additional liquidity could help Kalshi and Polymarket compete more effectively, though the reported arrangements do not establish that prices will improve.

Equity stakes amid rising valuations

Casino.org reported that Kalshi reached an $11 billion valuation after a $1 billion November funding round. Around that period, Polymarket’s estimated value was $9 billion to $10 billion, with discussion of a subsequent fundraising potentially valuing Shane Coplan’s company at at least $12 billion. The article illustrated the potential value with hypothetical half percent stakes—explicitly unconfirmed—which would each represent tens of millions of dollars.

Those valuation increases made Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire on record and Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara the youngest self-made female billionaire in history, according to Casino.org. The reported Jump arrangements would give another trading firm an ownership interest in the sector’s expansion.

The broader financial-industry links already include CME Group’s partnerships with event-contract platforms operated by DraftKings and FanDuel, and New York Stock Exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange’s position as Polymarket’s largest investor. Casino.org also reported that Goldman Sachs, the largest investment bank, recently described prediction markets as an attractive segment, potentially signaling interest in applying its market-making and high-speed trading capabilities.

What it means for prediction markets

• Execution is the practical test: More liquidity could narrow spreads and support less-active contracts; improved pricing remains a possibility rather than a confirmed outcome.
• The incentives differ: Jump’s reported Kalshi allocation is fixed, while its Polymarket ownership could grow if liquidity-capacity targets are met.
• Outside participation matters: Third-party market makers could reduce concerns about internal trading desks facing retail users, although Jump’s proposed equity holdings also tie it to the platforms.
• Important terms remain undisclosed: The stake percentages are unconfirmed, limiting conclusions about the value of the arrangements.